The Republican plans to pick off five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed like a sure thing. Not anymore.

Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic performance in this year’s special elections have changed both parties’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map – Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago – seems like it might be too small.

Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.

  • voxthefox@lemmy.blahaj.zone
    43·
    6 days ago

    They might not this election, but these gerrymandering attempts are more long lasting then one election. US voters (speaking as one) seem to have a terminal case of long term memory loss. So the next election everyone that normally votes republican but is disgusted by trump will go back to voting on their normal party lines, the new districts will stay in place, net them the extra seats and we get further racheted to the right.

    • jacksilver@lemmy.world
      8·
      6 days ago

      The question is, could democrats actually do something if they got a supermajority?

      Realsitically no, but if they did future elections may look very different.

      • Horsey@lemmy.world
        2·
        6 days ago

        A senate supermajority is impossible on both sides. There are too many blue seats, but not enough for a supermajority to ever happen.

      • voxthefox@lemmy.blahaj.zone
        1·
        6 days ago

        Very true, I truly hope so, but I’m doubtful they get it in the first place, and if they do i tend to have a pretty cynical view of the democrats since they tend to act more like a controlled opposition then a push towards progressive ideals

  • Rentlar@lemmy.ca
    43·
    6 days ago

    I think that Donald Trump doesn’t need to convince people that he feels their pain, but I think he does need to make the case that Democrats are too weak to fix it.

    The GOP pollster/strategist is correct. Democrats cannot rest on their laurels and grin at this news hoping to sail through the midterms. These potentially Democratic voters have to be presented with real solutions to the issues of affordability and getting rid of authoritarianism, and candidates with real conviction to do that.