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I browse Windy but don’t rely on any of those 4 weather forecasting models: I take the median of predicted temperatures and rainfalls instead. Also, I predict rain only if the median exceeds 1mm, and if it’s below that threshold but at least 3 models predict (some) rainfall I predict drizzle. Which is the same approach I had at my previous job, using data of doubtful quality to adjust Holt-Winters and Box-Jenkins models in order to forecast drug sales for Big Pharma.
Kaggle by the way began to demand users engaged on modelling competitions to make PDFs explaining their methodologies after learning some cheaters would just combine results from other competitors.
P.S. - Don’t average results from different models unless you are really, really sure of what you’re doing. Many times the models take turns on which one will output garbage, and you don’t want garbage contaminating your average. By switching to median you avoid the crap they sometimes spit altogether - not to mention it’s so simple you don’t even need to write numbers on paper or use a pocket calculator.
In vulcano seismology there is this fun little thing called a tremor and its really annoying but also really mysterious as no one knows where it is coming from or what cases it. I’ve had multiple people try to explain it or I was listenin to talks about it and I have yet to hear solidly overlapping theories. Also not only does the signal look different at every single opportunity (aka every vulcano) that you to look at it, it also hides within a frequency range that is mostly overlapped with random background signal. So to look at it you need to do analzye your seismometers for a directional eigenvalue (not sure if its the correct word or even the only what its just what I’m doing. I’m normally German speaking but what we do is look at the seismometers and whether or nor all or most of the signals are comming from the same direction) so that you can even detect it, meanin just to look at it you already need some statistics.
Not really sure where I’m going with this I just find this concept really really and I’m just once again baffled that we simply do not know about things in science.
Actual genuine scientists tend to be the nerd type excited about whatever it is they’re studying. They can’t wait to tell you about the frequency oscillations of some quasar or the courtship rituals of hagfish or whatever.
The journals they have to publish in are shady as a cave though.
Fun fact about Christmas. In next 5 years tops, the north pole will completely melt in summer thereby drowning every last motherfucker that works and lives there!
Here goes:
During my dissertation, I was lookig for information on the emissiom of 172nm scintillation light in mixtures of gaseous Xe and CO2 (95:5% - 98:2%), with results being difficult to come by. I found a collaborator who had tested this at lower CO2 concentrations (0-0.5%), but nothing else, no predictions or generalizable applications. Not knowing the optimal search engine terms or what textbook to look in for rules governing gaseous light emission, I ended up looking in fluorescence chemistry papers (my previous field of study) which had something called the Stern-Volmer relation for different concentrations of quenchant in a fluorescent solution. I figured gas scintillation queching was probably similar to liquid fluorescence quenching, but the standard relation didn’t quite fit below 10% additive.
I dug around more and found a modification of this relation for diffusion-limited quenching of fluorescent solutions (the same limitation imposed in gas mixtures, quenching due to random Brownian collisions) that employed an exponential term, allowing for a smoother curve down to low additive concentrations. This perfectly matched the available data and allowed me to model the predicted behavior. I discussed this with the one member of my committee who was available, an organic chemist (my PI was on vacation, everyone else was sick, and my dissertation defense was in 2 weeks). He said my reasoning and math for using this formula made sense and gave me a thumbs up to include this analysis. When my PI came back from holiday, he asked me why I didn’t use some equation generally used in the field, or even just a generic exponential fit. I was ignorant of his suggestion, but it provided the same general formulation as Stern-Volmer, though Stern-Volmer was more rigorously derived mathematically.
Mixing fields is super cool and can allow a much deeper understanding of the underlying principles, as opposed to limiting yourself to one branch of science. While my PI’s recommendation would have given approximately the same answer, understanding and applying Stern-Volmer allowed me to really dig at the principles at play and generate a more accurate and in-depth model, which I managed to write up and defend at the 11th hour.
How did the defense go
I am now Dr. Drail, so it went well! This was back in August, so I am still in recovery mode while I job search.
Congrats and good luck on the hunt
@drail@fedia.io built a wall made up of a 90 mins presentation around himself to defend his dissertation from his committee. The committee members built a wall of 120 mins of questions and internal discussions around that trapping @drail@fedia.io in for even longer. The whole affair was brutal. No one came out unscathed, yet no one can remember what happened except for the extremely troubling moments.
A moment of silence in remembrance…
🧑🎓 🫡🫡🫡
I’ve seen things. Things you’d never understand. All I can say is that the best dissertation defense is a good dissertation offense. So much blood on my hands…
One of my professors likened it to overeducated wolves surrounding a wounded elk.
Obviously the elk is weak. But is it weak enough?
Interesting, yet another proof that math is useful!
That secret being ‘the oil/sugar/etc lobby paid me to create this fake study to mislead you.’
"Agit-prop is a KIND of science . . . " (Lionel Hutz, probably)
This is why the “secret scientists don’t want you to know” always turns out to be some pseudoscience bs that at best is misinformation and at worst is actively harming people. So, yes, they are things scientists don’t want you to know.
I would argue that we still want them to know about pseudoscience, but also know enough about everything else to understand how the pseudoscience is wrong.
science makes me have faith in science.
Science is unironically one of the only things i ever trust because truth prevails, always…
Science research on the one hand is cursed to follow the money.
My own experience leaves me a bit more optimistic, although I do see some cursed bits.
The presence of money in research depends greatly on the field and the ability of the scientists to make their research sound sexy. You can mask a lot of wierd niche basic research topics with sexy applied research talk.
Also, there’s still a lot of science research without much money, being sustained by sheer enthusiasm.
I agree. A great example of why can be found in this excellent article about an extensive “dossier” of fraud allegations against a top Alzheimer’s researcher: (https://www.science.org/content/article/research-misconduct-finding-neuroscientist-eliezer-masliah-papers-under-suspicion)
Specifically, this snippet:
“Microbiologist and research integrity expert Elisabeth Bik, who also worked on the Zlokovic dossier, contributed other Masliah examples and reviewed and concurred with almost all of the findings.”
Elisabeth Bik is someone who has an incredible eye for fraudulently edited Western Blots images and someone I greatly admire. Calling her a “research integrity expert” is accurate, but what I find neat is that (to my knowledge) she doesn’t have any particular training or funding towards this work. A lot of work she does in this area starts on, or is made public on PubPeer, an online forum. This is all to say that Elisabeth Bik’s expertise and reputation in this area effectively stems from her just being a nerd on the internet.
I find it quite beautiful in a way, because she’s far from the only example of this. I especially find it neat when non-scientists are able to help root out scientific fraud specifically through non-scientist expertise. As a scientist who often finds herself propelled by sheer enthusiasm, sometimes feels overwhelmed by the “Publish or Perish” atmosphere in research, and who worries about the integrity of science when there’s so much trash being published, it’s heartening to see that enthusiasm and commitment to Truth still matters.
Which, ironically, defeats the entire purpose of science.
thankfully i’m not a scientist, but if the people much smarter than me, and collective consensus say one thing, i’m likely to agree broadly with that sentiment. If not, same goes but in reverse.
Now if i were doing science on the other hand…
Research is based on the so-called scientific method (therefore science) and that is something you can’t proof, just belief in. But it’s the best we have with extraordinary amount of evidence to back it up.
using the scientific method to demonstrate that the scientific method is the most effective method of science is definitely one of the moments of all time, for science.
There was this guy who spent his whole life in rural Arizona. All evidence indicated that the world is made of sand.
Never discount errors of perspective.
If you consider something that all scientists do then you might see a vast shared error.
It was evident that the world was bigger than what the guy saw, he was just not checking (lazy or insatiable or whatever) what’s further. There is the difference.
This is why we put walls around our laboratories.
To form a solid base for the giant telescopes we put on them so we don’t just see our small horizon.
At first I read “have you ever met a single scientist?” As in “don’t you know they’re all fuckin?”
We’re all fucking all right. We are all fucking with the laws of nature. You like it when we stop your atoms moving and shine a laser at you, don’t you, you dirty filthy condensate?
Laser bondage. Kinky
Beam me ‘daddy’?
Meet single scientists in your area. Click here.
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Not a scientist. I have a litany of complex topics that I just can’t really talk to anyone about. I’m a big computer networking nerd, and once upon a time, when I didn’t know what I didn’t know, I was curious what computer networking really entailed… It seemed dead simple, you connect things to a switch, connect that switch to the internet router, not much more.
Then I learned about VLANs, which are cool but it seemed like unnecessary complexity. Then I learned about Routing and L3 switching, and routing protocols and… Holy shit, how deep is this?
Now-a-days, I want to have conversations about the merits of one routing protocol over another in various contexts, and see/build a spine and leaf network infrastructure that’s nearly infinitely scalable.
I want to explore the nuance of IP unnumbered routing. I can’t find anyone who will chat about it on a level that’s close to my understanding, either someone knows way more than I do, or they know way less.
IP unnumbered routing is a way of connecting devices without setting an IP on the interface that is being routed to/from. The other end uses the routing protocol on top of layer 2, and while the two might have a router ID, often in the form of an IP address, the interface that is connecting the two has no IP. It’s basically advanced point to point protocol (PPP) that breaks away from traditional TCP/IP routing in ways that people who have never used anything besides TCP/IP can’t really comprehend. The two “IP addresses” (actually router IDs) in play can have nothing in common. Traditional TCP/IP requires that two IPs share a subnet. In routing, this is typically a /30 for IPv4, and the two IPs are adjacent to eachother, eg, 10.254.123.1 and 10.254.123.2 IP unnumbered can have 10.254.123.2 talking directly with 172.30.88.207, with no layer 3 interfaces in-between.
It’s really fascinating and interesting and I’ve been trying to find a good model or guide to help me learn this better, but I keep ending up at dead ends, and I have nobody to talk to about it.
Did my fair share of networking back in the day, but never heard of IP unnumbered. I was curious about the same idea back in the day and it is possible, but I haven’t much seen anyone doing it for realsies. If you have any good longreads/vids on the topic, it’d be much appreciated.
I’ll look at my resources and see what I can dig up. No promises, but the concepts are simple as long as you can separate yourself from the TCP/IP restrictions on two things needing to be in a subnet, and the idea that NAT is something that needs to happen.
Honestly, I’ve seen so many people get hung up on the fact that NAT isn’t universal, or necessary.
Should shoot me a DM, have been studying for my CCNP and do want more networking buddies to potentially socialize with.
I’ve been looking at the CCNP for a while, I don’t need it for the work I do at my day job, so I haven’t prioritized taking the test or anything.
I should do more work on it.
What’s your day job? From my understanding if you can get a CCNP you’re gonna be making over 100k after a few years if you’re able to get your foot in the door experience wise
There’s the problem. I can’t get my foot in the door for network-centered jobs. I have a ton of experience, and a CCNA, but all my experience is while working as a generalist in an MSP.
There’s a sort of curse in the industry where msp work is easy to get into from college/uni, but hard to evolve away from.
I’m not sure that I understand the benefit of “unnumbered” routing. It sounds like there are numbers (well, “identifiers”), just not IP addresses.
It’s hard to know without more context, but you can use things like IPv6 multicast to manage reachability. This will let you set arbitrary sets of endpoints that talk to each other, and you can still us IP-based tools to debug connectivity, measure performance, and so on.
The benefits are pretty simple but have broader implications than what would be apparent on the surface.
Let me lay down a little ground work first. Traditionally with routing protocols you need to implement a /30 between interfaces on the connected devices before routing will come up. Usually that requires the use of IPAM, and a lot of record keeping to ensure nothing overlaps.
So let’s take the example of a relatively simple spine and leaf topology. A leaf switch dies, or otherwise needs replacing. You set up the new leaf with a template, which contains pretty much all the routing commands you’ll need, and all of your overlay transport, VLAN definitions, and whatever. After that, you need to program the uplink interfaces to the spine(s) - hopefully at least two - in order to get it online.
If you’re doing a replacement because a switch died, looking up the interface IP assignments for the leaf is going to take a lot of time, nevermind programming the addresses, and all the possible fat finger typos that could happen, just to get the switch communicating in your underlay (and to your management systems).
In small networks, not a big deal, you’re dealing with maybe a dozen such devices at most, but in large scale provider, datacenter, or hyperscale networks with literally hundreds of racks, each with a top-of-rack leaf switch, good luck.
Enter IP unnumbered. Same situation. You can pre-prepare any standby switches with unique loopback IPs in the routing system, and mark them as used in the IPAM for a standby device. A failure happens, you grab a standby switch and head to the rack. Next you yank all of the port connections out and plug them into the standby switch and power it up ASAP. Without touching the config at all, it grabs the routing and comes online, and the NOC can simply apply the port config for that rack on that switch from their management console.
This can easily cut repair time in half or better.
Any switch can be moved anywhere in the enjoyment and it will come online right away.
So this isn’t about routing really, rather about optimizing standby routers for recovery.
A few things make me nervous.
First, the description of the work involved seems to imply that your setup really needs more automated tooling. Nontrivial, but you’ve already mentioned typos, and that this is for large operations.
Second, using IPv4 for your management network is wasteful and needlessly complicated. Even if your customer traffic is all IPv4, there’s really no reason to use legacy protocols for internal routing.
None of this is real, everything I said was hypothetical to demonstrate the point.
I get what you’re trying to say, but what you’re saying is in favor of unnumbered compatible routing protocols.
I do not presently work in a provider or datacenter scale environment, and of the few that I’ve seen that I’ve been able to “peek behind the curtain” so to speak, the issues I’m pointing at are very real.
I need some help with networking and eventually getting an organisation website online; if you want to geek out a bit, please send me a dm. :)
Bringing a website online sounds a lot more like development stuff.
Networking is all about how to get data from one place to another that is reasonable, manageable and scalable. Knowing what devices are increasing latency and when you should adjust the settings to route around a high latency (and/or high loss) link to enhance performance and reliability. Visibility into network flows in real time and monitoring for every link and port that’s connected to a device, switch, router, or computer.
Web hosting is system admin and development.
What networking concerns do you have with this website?
Now-a-days, I want to have conversations about the merits of one routing protocol over another in various contexts, and see/build a spine and leaf network infrastructure that’s nearly infinitely scalable.
bro i just want screensharing that isn’t using the hell that is webrtc.
How hard is it to send video packets over IP, it can’t be that difficult. Half the job is already done, and i can’t imagine building a reliable networking protocol, even if you had to do it from scratch would be particularly hard.
everything is webrtc, it always has been.
See, I only recently came into awareness that web RTC was a thing. I have a lot of learning to do on how it even works as a protocol.
I’m sure it runs on top of IP, so I think web RTC meets your curriculum here. Regardless of that, I think I know what you mean, and if I knew enough about the protocol, I might even agree.
I need to brush up on the new protocols that are getting to be very common. I’m almost entirely up to date on the 802.11 specs, but there’s so much to keep track of… Yikes.
webrtc is close to being ok, however there are two primary issues i have with it, one, it’s a web standard, so it’s implemented into the web, meaning you need a browser to use it. (unless you magically invented an external implementation at which point use a custom one lmao)
outside of that, it uses things like stun and turn, which are nice on the global net, but not something i want, and a potential security concern as well.
idk much about the backend implementation of it, but in most of the applications i’ve used it, it’s complete dogshit and barely passes as functional in most cases. It also comes with this really cool bug where you can’t use it cross browser, for some reason, idk what that’s about.
Literally all i want is webRTC, but without the dogshit implementation, and just raw-dogging IP traffic so i can point it to a hosted server. I don’t want the web features, i don’t want to use web traffic, i most certainly don’t want to be using TLS and web encryption because it’s a required feature to use webRTC on the browser, making it yet more annoying.
It’s so close to being a neat and cool standard, but the overly integrated design of it makes it useless for anything that isn’t already a thing, like zoom, or discord. Which have pretty ok implementations of it.
yeah uh… you lost me at ‘protocols’
Clearly those aren’t real scientists. Real scientists have secret labs, where they do secret research.
And annoying older sisters who blow their experiments to smithereens…
That’s why they learn random facts about stink bugs to scare everyone away from their secret knowledge
My new favorite conspiracy theory
And remember: the more niche it sounds, the more secret their actual project. When someone tells you they use role and reference grammar to analyze the socio economic implications of the difference in vowel harmony between classical and biblical Hebrew, they basically admit they work for MKUltra. It isn’t debatable in any meaningful way at that point anymore.
Prepare for the cataclysm!
There’s one thing they aren’t screaming about: how free will is a myth. It’s a topic that gets shot down a lot.
That’s barely an info dump on the subject. Observe -
Free will is a complicated subject. If there is a divine creation (or simulation or whatever) then then what started the universe was a seed - or rather a set series of circumstances that started everything. Then everything built on that leading to me writing and you reading this.
Free will is a choice - a decision to choose where your decisions come from. Are you truly in control or do you just choose the best possible outcome based on past relevant experiences? Obviously you will live with the consequences, no one’s saying you wouldn’t 👀
Regardless, we’re all built on consequences of our past self which’ll in turn become your new past self. And from there it’ll continue till death. Obviously death itself is complicated and you’ll eventually face it. And what happens afterwards is another conversation. But until then you’ll make the most of everything you have. Every damn day.
Edit: formating
This is so true, and I can’t even type that without a severe eyeroll of agreement.
I think that’s why some people wax poetic on Reddit or Lemmy with very little provocation. Finally…a captive audience that might read this info, even if they’re just passing time on the shitter…
Yeah. No one cares if you’re rambling in a comment. Just be interesting enough that someone can pause their doom scrolling to read it.
I personally have about 5 subjects where I can chime in with fun (to me) little facts.
Or essays on the subject…
Quick , tell me a fun fact
I know you’re not talking to me, but let me seize this unique opportunity to tell you that the amazing Dracula orchids with flowers, which look A LOT like monkey faces to us humans, are actually trying to imitate certain type of mushrooms, which attract their pollinators (flies that lay eggs on the mushrooms)!!! The mushroom part of the flower is what seems to be the monkey’s mouth to us.
Please, feel free to search for Dracula orchid pictures to see many more monkey faces.
Thank you, that is the funnest fact I’ve had all week
Thanks, that was rad!
My friends are political science guys. They’re just all getting blind drunk and muttering right now?
Because of Trump or is that just their natural state?
It could be Trump or the dean told them they have to publish another book. It’s kind of hard to tell some days.
