Westminster Voting Intention:
🌹 LAB: 50% (+4) 🌳 CON: 25% (-4) 🔶 LDM: 9% (-3) 🌍 GRN: 7% (+2) ➡️ RFM: 4% (=) 🎗️ SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @DeltapollUK, 17-21 Aug. Changes w/ 9-11 Aug.
Flavible:
| Party | Pred % | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|
| CON 🌳 | 25.0% | 130 |
| LAB 🌹 | 50.0% | 427 |
| LD 🔶 | 9.0% | 35 |
| REFUK ➡️ | 4.0% | 0 |
| Green 🌍 | 7.0% | 1 |
| SNP 🎗️ | 3% | 31 |
| PC 💮 | 1% | 4 |
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON 🌳 | 44.7% | 376 | 25.0% | 0 | 297 | -297 | 79 |
| LAB 🌹 | 33.0% | 197 | 50.0% | 330 | 0 | +330 | 527 |
| LIB 🔶 | 11.8% | 8 | 9% | 11 | 2 | +9 | 17 |
| Reform ➡️ | 2.1% | 0 | 4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green 🌍 | 2.8% | 1 | 7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP 🎗️ | 4.0% | 48 | 3.1% | 0 | 44 | -44 | 4 |
| PlaidC 💮 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.4% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| Other ⬜️ | 1.1% | 0 | 1.1% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| N.Ire ⬜️ | - | 18 | - | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
Scotland EC Break-Down (👀)
| Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 31% |
It’s always fascinating to me, as a dork who follows politics too much, how little anything has any clear effect on the polling. Fastest wage growth in history? Who gives a shit. Inflation falling? So what. Put the refugees on the barge/immediately take them off the barge? What the hell. Starmer walks back some other pledge? Lab +4.