cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/26740087
Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout
Zero chance of that happening /s
Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.
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However, a recent Woods Hole Institute study concluded that there was little sign of the AMOC collapsing, and another, I forget where from, concluded that we’d be seeing severe cooling in the UK and Ireland within twenty years. I’m wary of taking any single study as concrete on this, as the best data and the finest minds seem to give a solid maybe on all outcomes.
You can ask Stefan Rahmstrof on Mastodon what he thinks if you want a little more clarity. He’s one of the authors
@rahmstorf@fediscience.org
The main conclusion from this should be that climate change is entering an ever more unpredictable stage.
Exactly. I’m building a house at the moment, and basically insulating it as if it might be in the tropics or Greenland in the next ten years, planning for drought and deep freeze. It’s tricky, but worth it I reckon
High winds, flooding, hail, and food scarcity are things to consider as well. Fruit trees and other long term foods are good to get started as soon as possible.
My impression is that as we study AMOC collapse more and more, the average of the estimates keeps getting revised to be sooner and sooner (not just due to the passage of time).
This is basically my experience with climate collapse over the last 2 decades.
Isn’t severe cooling in the UK and Ireland one of the outcomes of the slowing/collapse of the AMOC? Maybe I’m misunderstanding what you are saying, and you aren’t listing that as evidence against it.
Yep, that’s a likely outcome. It’s the timing I’m talking about - there’s 3 studies, all current, and all with wildly different conclusions, although the appearance of the cold and cooling blob above Ireland indicates (to me at least, no expert) that it’s actually happening. The Woods Hole study seems to be the least likely outcome to me, but they’re a phenomenally well-regarded oceanographic institute, and I don’t know enough to really make comparisons between them, but I do find it interesting that there’s such a variance in study results.
