When you claim Yanukovych’s removal from power counts as an “overthrow”, I’m not sure I agree with that, because Ukraine’s parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from power.
Well then, when you claim that Russia’s involvement counts as an “invasion,” I’m not sure I agree because the disputed territories held votes to break away, invite Russia to defend their sovereignty, and to become part of Russia. Of course, those votes were held after a bunch of armed men took control of their local governments, but then, the Ukrainian parliament only voted to oust Yanukovych after a bunch of armed men took control of the parliament building. In my mind, neither is particularly reliable, but if you ask me to treat one as reliable, then it’s only fair that I treat the other the same way. In that view, either Ukraine’s current government is the result of a Western-backed coup, or Russia’s involvement is a response to a request for aid from the break away regions, and it’s primarily a civil war. If either of those things are true, then it’s enough for me to wash my hands of the situation.
But anyway, maybe there is not much point in talking about where you and I disagree, because that could go on forever. I think we agree on some points
Okay I said maybe we shouldn’t talk about where we disagree but I think I disagree with those points about Ukraine. I think it was the elected parliament of Ukraine who voted to remove Yanukovych, rather than a “bunch of armed men” who voted. As for the Russian-backed referendums in the Donbas, I don’t trust them myself, given Russia’s history of ballot stuffing and the state deliberately harming political opponents.
I think the best outcome would be if the war immediately ends and then every oblast (in Ukraine and in Russia) could have a free and fair election regarding their future. If some Ukrainian oblasts vote in a free and fair election to join Russia then fair enough. In any case, unfortunately the war will very likely grind on.
Yes, parliament voted, after a bunch of armed men seized control of the parliament building. I never claimed that it was the armed men who voted.
As for the Russian-backed referendums in the Donbas, I don’t trust them myself, given Russia’s history of ballot stuffing and the state deliberately harming political opponents.
As for the government of Ukraine, I would say that I don’t trust them because of the US’s long history of color revolutions and the fact that there was a leaked call in which western intelligence was discussing who should end up in charge and all the people they picked mysteriously ended up in power.
However, it’s not really about who I trust or don’t trust, or what I think might have happened behind closed doors. Even if the overthrow was entirely driven by domestic forces with no outside meddling, the fact is that they proceeded to ban opposition parties and thereby effectively shut out the people in eastern regions from having a voice in government. That’s just factual. You say the votes in eastern Ukraine were probably rigged, and maybe they were. But in that case there’s no real way to know what the people actually want, because they were shut out of the political process by having their parties banned.
So, I return to my position of not thinking either side is really worth dying over. Or forcing other people to die over. And let’s remember, that’s what we’re talking about here. It’s not just a question of preferring one side over the other, we’re talking about grabbing people off the streets, giving them a rifle, and forcing them to the front, whether they want to or not. I would need a very good reason to deviate from my null hypothesis of opposing involvement in any conflict. And between a flawed democracy that may be a Western puppet, and a rebellion that may be a Russian puppet, I just don’t see it. You can argue that I ought to prefer one side or the other, but I mean, I think that if anyone really thinks there’s such compelling reason to support Ukraine, they ought to go out there and fight themselves. In reality, I think that pro-Ukraine people are just defaulting to, rather than a null hypothesis of opposing war, to a null hypothesis of trusting the government and media. And that is something that I fundamentally disagree with, in my view, that is simply national chauvinism.
they were shut out of the political process by having their parties banned
The banning of pro-Russia parties apparently happened after Russia launched its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, so the banning can’t be a justification for the invasion.
we’re talking about grabbing people off the streets, giving them a rifle, and forcing them to the front
I hope that doesn’t happen and I hope Ukrainian people can choose whether they want to fight or not. I also think though that Russia shouldn’t be taking land and lives by force, and they also shouldn’t be trying to install their own puppet regime in Kyiv.
The banning of pro-Russia parties apparently happened after Russia launched its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, so the banning can’t be a justification for the invasion.
That’s incorrect. Almost immediately after coming to power in 2014, the Ukrainian government started banning opposition parties. It appears they banned more parties after 2022 as well (my previous source may have been referencing that, which I apologize for mixing up).
I hope that doesn’t happen and I hope Ukrainian people can choose whether they want to fight or not.
It does happen and they don’t. Both sides of the war are using conscription, and the Ukrainian government has even tried to get other governments to force Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine so they can be conscripted, because they are facing manpower shortages.
The whole situation is a tragedy and a mess. I think it’s somewhat insane that either side saw this conflict as a viable option, there were diplomatic off-ramps that were ignored. Generally I just don’t trust the same politicians and media that led us into Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years to get involved in any conflict, pretty much regardless of the circumstances. Because, after all, I’m a leftist.
Well then, when you claim that Russia’s involvement counts as an “invasion,” I’m not sure I agree because the disputed territories held votes to break away, invite Russia to defend their sovereignty, and to become part of Russia. Of course, those votes were held after a bunch of armed men took control of their local governments, but then, the Ukrainian parliament only voted to oust Yanukovych after a bunch of armed men took control of the parliament building. In my mind, neither is particularly reliable, but if you ask me to treat one as reliable, then it’s only fair that I treat the other the same way. In that view, either Ukraine’s current government is the result of a Western-backed coup, or Russia’s involvement is a response to a request for aid from the break away regions, and it’s primarily a civil war. If either of those things are true, then it’s enough for me to wash my hands of the situation.
Fair enough.
Okay I said maybe we shouldn’t talk about where we disagree but I think I disagree with those points about Ukraine. I think it was the elected parliament of Ukraine who voted to remove Yanukovych, rather than a “bunch of armed men” who voted. As for the Russian-backed referendums in the Donbas, I don’t trust them myself, given Russia’s history of ballot stuffing and the state deliberately harming political opponents.
I think the best outcome would be if the war immediately ends and then every oblast (in Ukraine and in Russia) could have a free and fair election regarding their future. If some Ukrainian oblasts vote in a free and fair election to join Russia then fair enough. In any case, unfortunately the war will very likely grind on.
Yes, parliament voted, after a bunch of armed men seized control of the parliament building. I never claimed that it was the armed men who voted.
As for the government of Ukraine, I would say that I don’t trust them because of the US’s long history of color revolutions and the fact that there was a leaked call in which western intelligence was discussing who should end up in charge and all the people they picked mysteriously ended up in power.
However, it’s not really about who I trust or don’t trust, or what I think might have happened behind closed doors. Even if the overthrow was entirely driven by domestic forces with no outside meddling, the fact is that they proceeded to ban opposition parties and thereby effectively shut out the people in eastern regions from having a voice in government. That’s just factual. You say the votes in eastern Ukraine were probably rigged, and maybe they were. But in that case there’s no real way to know what the people actually want, because they were shut out of the political process by having their parties banned.
So, I return to my position of not thinking either side is really worth dying over. Or forcing other people to die over. And let’s remember, that’s what we’re talking about here. It’s not just a question of preferring one side over the other, we’re talking about grabbing people off the streets, giving them a rifle, and forcing them to the front, whether they want to or not. I would need a very good reason to deviate from my null hypothesis of opposing involvement in any conflict. And between a flawed democracy that may be a Western puppet, and a rebellion that may be a Russian puppet, I just don’t see it. You can argue that I ought to prefer one side or the other, but I mean, I think that if anyone really thinks there’s such compelling reason to support Ukraine, they ought to go out there and fight themselves. In reality, I think that pro-Ukraine people are just defaulting to, rather than a null hypothesis of opposing war, to a null hypothesis of trusting the government and media. And that is something that I fundamentally disagree with, in my view, that is simply national chauvinism.
The banning of pro-Russia parties apparently happened after Russia launched its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, so the banning can’t be a justification for the invasion.
I hope that doesn’t happen and I hope Ukrainian people can choose whether they want to fight or not. I also think though that Russia shouldn’t be taking land and lives by force, and they also shouldn’t be trying to install their own puppet regime in Kyiv.
That’s incorrect. Almost immediately after coming to power in 2014, the Ukrainian government started banning opposition parties. It appears they banned more parties after 2022 as well (my previous source may have been referencing that, which I apologize for mixing up).
It does happen and they don’t. Both sides of the war are using conscription, and the Ukrainian government has even tried to get other governments to force Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine so they can be conscripted, because they are facing manpower shortages.
The whole situation is a tragedy and a mess. I think it’s somewhat insane that either side saw this conflict as a viable option, there were diplomatic off-ramps that were ignored. Generally I just don’t trust the same politicians and media that led us into Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years to get involved in any conflict, pretty much regardless of the circumstances. Because, after all, I’m a leftist.