not how statistics work. percentages apply to sample of any size.
imagine there were 100 voters in the last elections. trump got 50 of them and if he got all of this 15% group (unlikely, but it actually plays in his favor in this argument). that means 50*0,70=35 of his voters believed he was guilty and voted for him anyway.
if someone asks why 0,70 and not 0,85 (1-0,15) it is based on assumption that the we believe he is not guilty group was largely voting for him, which is not unreasonable assumption.
if some of them were actually voting for democrats, that makes the number of people voting for him despite believing he is a child rapist even higher.
(this argument indeed ignores shift of this number in time).
Even then, pretty sure he didn’t get 50% of the votes.
not how statistics work. percentages apply to sample of any size.
imagine there were 100 voters in the last elections. trump got 50 of them and if he got all of this 15% group (unlikely, but it actually plays in his favor in this argument). that means 50*0,70=35 of his voters believed he was guilty and voted for him anyway.
if someone asks why 0,70 and not 0,85 (1-0,15) it is based on assumption that the we believe he is not guilty group was largely voting for him, which is not unreasonable assumption. if some of them were actually voting for democrats, that makes the number of people voting for him despite believing he is a child rapist even higher.
(this argument indeed ignores shift of this number in time).
even though it is irrelevant in this argument - he got 49.80% of votes and he won popular vote with 77,3M against harris’s 75M votes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Results