Saudi Arabia shouldn’t have bothered. Nobody except China is even trying to make a cost-competitive EV (in fact, every other country is trying to block the import of those cost-competitive EVs). Poorer countries are stuck with ICE because the “developed world” refuses to develop cheaper clean alternatives that poorer people can actually use. Instead, we get Rivians and Lucids and Teslas supporter by billions of dollars in incentives and subsidies and no reason to meaningfully drive costs down. All for the sake of profit at the cost of progress.
I highly disagree with that notion. This week marked one of the first weeks, where HVO100 Diesel was about 20 cents cheaper than fossile diesel in wide parts of italy. HVO100 in Sweden is getting super cheap as well, it’s hitting the same prices in many fuel stations. You can’t even get fossile diesel anymore in California. And I see more and more people fueling up on “my” HVO100 station for about 15-20 cent more.
BEVs are here to stay and I guess they’ll get some market share, but that doesn’t mean things aren’t getting carbon neutralised somewhere else. Considering 1 kWh produces 1 Liter of HVO100, that is nearly 100% carbon neutral (some of the hydrogen needed is still being made from natural gas, but neste plans to phase that out until the end of 2024, so it’s 100% carbon neutral - and btw reduces most other pollutants at least 45 %), it’s going to be really, really cheap, as so much food grade oil is being used and still just burned in incinerators (neste estimates, around 65% of worldwide diesel/kerosene and heater fuel usage is possible with that alone, the talin oil and fish oil fish oil waste will be another 10% and the rest is going to be made from plastics, which is awesome in so many ways).
My guess is, BEVs will stay expensive and a bit more exclusive, but the rest is going to just fuel up with alternatives, as more and more countries are coming to their senses and outlawing fossile fuels.
The “funniest” part in all of this is…the Saudis are sitting on so much potential sun energy, it’s utterly stupid to not just swamp the market with carbon free oil alternatives. Because they could have the best of both worlds, making other countries still depend on them for their energy needs, but doing it carbon neutral.
I think you’re missing the context. China has shown that BEVs can be cost-competitive with ICE vehicles. This isn’t some far out claim, it’s the reality today. China has also been the primary driver behind the cost-competitiveness of solar, and produces the vast majority of the world’s solar panels. The developed world is lagging behind not because the technology isn’t there, but because they’re unwilling to invest in it.
No - not a single BEV is cost-competitive in most European Countries with ICE Vehicles, UNLESS you have your own photovoltaics on the roof or power is less than 30 cent per kWh. And if you don’t have a way to charge where you actually park, things are looking even worse, because then you pay 70 cent or more per kWh, making it extremely expensive. The “developed world” is not lagging behind because they are unwilling to invest - there is no incentive to invest money wise, because of stupid legislations or because other things are way too subsidized.
I very much agree with you with the Saudi thing, some people say, but what would they do with that power? And I say mine crypto, smelt aluminum and laugh in our faces at the 100 other ways of stabilizing electricity.
Saudi Arabia shouldn’t have bothered. Nobody except China is even trying to make a cost-competitive EV (in fact, every other country is trying to block the import of those cost-competitive EVs). Poorer countries are stuck with ICE because the “developed world” refuses to develop cheaper clean alternatives that poorer people can actually use. Instead, we get Rivians and Lucids and Teslas supporter by billions of dollars in incentives and subsidies and no reason to meaningfully drive costs down. All for the sake of profit at the cost of progress.
I highly disagree with that notion. This week marked one of the first weeks, where HVO100 Diesel was about 20 cents cheaper than fossile diesel in wide parts of italy. HVO100 in Sweden is getting super cheap as well, it’s hitting the same prices in many fuel stations. You can’t even get fossile diesel anymore in California. And I see more and more people fueling up on “my” HVO100 station for about 15-20 cent more.
BEVs are here to stay and I guess they’ll get some market share, but that doesn’t mean things aren’t getting carbon neutralised somewhere else. Considering 1 kWh produces 1 Liter of HVO100, that is nearly 100% carbon neutral (some of the hydrogen needed is still being made from natural gas, but neste plans to phase that out until the end of 2024, so it’s 100% carbon neutral - and btw reduces most other pollutants at least 45 %), it’s going to be really, really cheap, as so much food grade oil is being used and still just burned in incinerators (neste estimates, around 65% of worldwide diesel/kerosene and heater fuel usage is possible with that alone, the talin oil and fish oil fish oil waste will be another 10% and the rest is going to be made from plastics, which is awesome in so many ways).
My guess is, BEVs will stay expensive and a bit more exclusive, but the rest is going to just fuel up with alternatives, as more and more countries are coming to their senses and outlawing fossile fuels.
The “funniest” part in all of this is…the Saudis are sitting on so much potential sun energy, it’s utterly stupid to not just swamp the market with carbon free oil alternatives. Because they could have the best of both worlds, making other countries still depend on them for their energy needs, but doing it carbon neutral.
I think you’re missing the context. China has shown that BEVs can be cost-competitive with ICE vehicles. This isn’t some far out claim, it’s the reality today. China has also been the primary driver behind the cost-competitiveness of solar, and produces the vast majority of the world’s solar panels. The developed world is lagging behind not because the technology isn’t there, but because they’re unwilling to invest in it.
No - not a single BEV is cost-competitive in most European Countries with ICE Vehicles, UNLESS you have your own photovoltaics on the roof or power is less than 30 cent per kWh. And if you don’t have a way to charge where you actually park, things are looking even worse, because then you pay 70 cent or more per kWh, making it extremely expensive. The “developed world” is not lagging behind because they are unwilling to invest - there is no incentive to invest money wise, because of stupid legislations or because other things are way too subsidized.
California has power rates at 34c/kWh off-peak and 43c/kWh peak. Europe isn’t unique. Peak Tesla charging rates hover around 60c/kWh.
Well, i’d go so far and say California besides Canada is the most European Like in North-America…
I very much agree with you with the Saudi thing, some people say, but what would they do with that power? And I say mine crypto, smelt aluminum and laugh in our faces at the 100 other ways of stabilizing electricity.
Make blue crude - way more ROI
It’s really hard to be optimistic and solutions-oriented at times…