Elon Musk once scoffed at the notion that BYD could compete with his company. Now, the automaker run by billionaire Wang Chuanfu is poised to be the new No. 1 in electric vehicles.
Tesla was bringing in insane margins and profits, I don’t think people necessarily appreciate how much it was.
In 2022, Tesla earned more profit (12.6b) than Ford AND GM (10.6 combined) on substantially less vehicles. Most of the legacy manufactures were also looking to suffer for an extended period of time, bringing in the question of their long term profitability, while Tesla showed growth and profits. Tesla was also on track to beat Toyota in 2023 or 2024. (Edit: It might have been VW not Toyota)
People were looking at their growth trajectory and what the company guidance was and seeing those margins were, and while the PE would be high 4-5 years down the road looking at it like this, it wasn’t going to be entirely crazy either.
When a company is growing so fast, people give it a higher multiple, until it’s not.
Then the margins dropped, Elon did his batshit insane stuff with Twitter, and some combination of that leaves us where we are today.
Right now, they really need to make their Gen 3 25k vehicle as that’s much more priced in than FSD IMO. Tesla has been guiding 50% CAGR for
years now, and if Gen 3 comes out and it doesn’t start that trend again with their standard good margins, they’re going to get brutalized. If they keeping delaying it much longer, I think they’re going to get really hurt as well.
The current price is really just a waiting period to see what happens with Gen 3 and the energy business.
I expect to see downgrades in 2024 because Tesla won’t meet the 50% CAGR target that people take to mean 50% each year.
By 2025 I think the big talking point will be their booming energy business as people start to realize it might actually be bigger than the car business for real.
Edit: it’s also worth pointing out, margins came down because interest rates went up. A car payment at these lower prices is around the same as it was when prices were higher, it’s just that money is going to the banks as interest instead of the car manufacturers. That, and Elon fucking the brand over with his twitter nonsense.
I admit what Tesla has done is very impressive, and they actually ARE as big as the rest of top 10 combined on pure electric cars here (Denmark). But the competition has arrived, and it is very unlikely that Tesla can maintain such a huge market share, and the margins will probably never come close again to what they were, again because there is more competition now.
In the energy market, Tesla presented solar roof tiles which went away again, and they had the power wall which I’m not sure is very popular anymore. Here nobody uses that, when we bought our solar solution with battery, Tesla didn’t even appear in internet searches as an option. Tesla has done some energy things for the past 15 years, including selling a battery park for mass storage in Australia, but it seems none of the projects are very successful, and Tesla is far from a market leader in any aspect of energy AFAIK.
I’m guessing by almost worthless, he means it would be valued as other car makers, and that would decrease the value to a fraction of what it is today. Unfortunately for Musk, Tesla AI is in fact basically worthless without the false promises. Because Tesla is at best #4, and in high tech generally, being #4 means your margins have to be very low.
The energy business, primarily commercial, has actually been doing really well. It was stalled during covid in favor of vehicles, but it’s ramping now. They have done much more than just Australia, and they’ve actually been very successful. You just don’t hear about it the same as it’s less flashy than cars or AI. They also sell AI driven software to help optimize power grids power arbitrage, which is successful recurring recenue software tack on as well.
Their new facility that’s ramping right now will put out 40gwh a year which is more batteries than some legacy auto manufacturers are using, and they are building a second in China that’s going to start producing in 2024. That’s over a million cars worth of batteries being sold at commercial margins. As the business ramps its going to be as or more profitable than cars excluding a future where FSD is successful. (edit: just for reference, they deployed about 66,000 60kwh cars worth of batteries in Q3)
They’re also getting into the power business in Texas and I’d expect to see that to expand, and their virtual power plant product is also growing and will be a big thing in the future. I’m actually excited about VPP from any and all providers as it’s really going to add security to the power grid while helping out the home owners. A Vermont power company wants to get a home battery in 100% of their customers homes over the next few years.
So keep an eye on all this if it interests you at all, it’s going to be big, and as I said, people are going to start accounting for it. They made almost a billion profit on that on Q3 (edit: I’m an idiot and can’t line items up. It was 381 million profit at about 40% scaled. I mixed up a line with service and other. The point still stands though, you can’t ignore almost 400 million in profit with the rapid growth its showing)
As for the AI, analysts really weren’t accounting for it and they weren’t accounting for energy either. You can say they are all crazy for having given tesla those valuations without it if you want, but im just telling you what was really happening. A few like Cathie Woods were, but most weren’t.
And like my edit about car payments. I wouldn’t ever expect the same margins on the 3/y again, but do expect margins and prices to go up as interest rates come down. People buy cars based off the car payment, and those are the same today as when margins were higher and Tesla still sold around 1.8 million vehicles this year at those same payments. If payments become cheaper because interest rates come down, prices will go up somewhat at all manufacturers as there will be more demand for cheaper payments. Those other manufacturers are suffering more than Tesla due to the interest rates and they desperately need them to go down to help with their profitability. The longer this drags on, the worse they’re going to be as ICE restriction start coming into play in various countries.
Also, the competition is coming and teslas market share going down is old and tiring to hear. Tesla isn’t competing against other EV makers, their competing against ICE sales. Their total market share is increasing. The story is always going to be their EV market share is decreasing because if you are at 100% and someone sells 1 car, you’re decreasing. If their total market share is decreasing in a region, then that might be a real problem.
The real competition (edit: within the EV space) is going to be the Chinese EV makers. That I feel is legit. But Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota etc, it’s the same story and they’re still struggling and even cutting back plans. They talk a big talk, but the jury is still out on that one.
I don’t think Tesla AI is worthless without FSD either, but clearly dramatically less without. They do use AI for power as I mentioned, and they’ve diversified their FSD computer into the bot, which is a long shot, but it puts their eggs in 2 baskets instead of 1 which could prevent a complete disaster if FSD fails. The bot is easier to solve than FSD so it’s not out of the question.___
Thank you, that’s a very interesting and thorough response. 👍
From what you write, it all sounds very impressive, question is then why Musk would call Tesla basically worthless without AI?
Also, the competition is coming and teslas market share going down is old and tiring to hear.
Well I wrote the competition has already arrived, and yes Tesla may increase market share total, because the total EV market is increasing market share. What I meant is that they can’t sustain their current market share and margins in the EV market. So they will not become as big as the rest of top 10 combined. Tesla may be able to hold their market share for the total market, maybe even increase it a bit. But I strongly suspect even that will go down when the competition is nearer completing the transition period, and compete at full strength. Tesla had a 10 year head start, but in 10 years that won’t matter as much.
The real competition is going to be the Chinese EV makers.
The competition from China is already real, and Chinese cars dominate China with BYD having 7 out of 10 top selling cars in China and Tesla only 2, and China is now the biggest market in the world. China is expanding quickly to other markets. We have many Chinese brands in Europe now, that all arrived very recently. But European and American makers like for instance VW and Ford, are also improving rapidly. Then of course there is Hyundai/KIA which is the world 3rd largest maker, that makes some very good EV offerings here.
One of the reasons I think Tesla may lose in the long run, is that they are a very long time about making new models. Maybe it’s just Musk who promises results unrealistically soon. But the delays are sometimes up to 5 years delivering what he claims they can do now!
Just double replying here in case you did read my other reply and just didn’t reply. I made a big oopsie with the energy profit by mixing up lines with service and other. The profit was 381 million, not almost a billion. My bad.
Tesla was bringing in insane margins and profits, I don’t think people necessarily appreciate how much it was.
In 2022, Tesla earned more profit (12.6b) than Ford AND GM (10.6 combined) on substantially less vehicles. Most of the legacy manufactures were also looking to suffer for an extended period of time, bringing in the question of their long term profitability, while Tesla showed growth and profits. Tesla was also on track to beat Toyota in 2023 or 2024. (Edit: It might have been VW not Toyota)
People were looking at their growth trajectory and what the company guidance was and seeing those margins were, and while the PE would be high 4-5 years down the road looking at it like this, it wasn’t going to be entirely crazy either.
When a company is growing so fast, people give it a higher multiple, until it’s not.
Then the margins dropped, Elon did his batshit insane stuff with Twitter, and some combination of that leaves us where we are today.
Right now, they really need to make their Gen 3 25k vehicle as that’s much more priced in than FSD IMO. Tesla has been guiding 50% CAGR for years now, and if Gen 3 comes out and it doesn’t start that trend again with their standard good margins, they’re going to get brutalized. If they keeping delaying it much longer, I think they’re going to get really hurt as well.
The current price is really just a waiting period to see what happens with Gen 3 and the energy business.
I expect to see downgrades in 2024 because Tesla won’t meet the 50% CAGR target that people take to mean 50% each year.
By 2025 I think the big talking point will be their booming energy business as people start to realize it might actually be bigger than the car business for real.
Edit: it’s also worth pointing out, margins came down because interest rates went up. A car payment at these lower prices is around the same as it was when prices were higher, it’s just that money is going to the banks as interest instead of the car manufacturers. That, and Elon fucking the brand over with his twitter nonsense.
I admit what Tesla has done is very impressive, and they actually ARE as big as the rest of top 10 combined on pure electric cars here (Denmark). But the competition has arrived, and it is very unlikely that Tesla can maintain such a huge market share, and the margins will probably never come close again to what they were, again because there is more competition now.
In the energy market, Tesla presented solar roof tiles which went away again, and they had the power wall which I’m not sure is very popular anymore. Here nobody uses that, when we bought our solar solution with battery, Tesla didn’t even appear in internet searches as an option. Tesla has done some energy things for the past 15 years, including selling a battery park for mass storage in Australia, but it seems none of the projects are very successful, and Tesla is far from a market leader in any aspect of energy AFAIK.
Elon Musk himself has stated that without AI, Tesla would be almost worthless.
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-b2102597.html
I’m guessing by almost worthless, he means it would be valued as other car makers, and that would decrease the value to a fraction of what it is today. Unfortunately for Musk, Tesla AI is in fact basically worthless without the false promises. Because Tesla is at best #4, and in high tech generally, being #4 means your margins have to be very low.
The energy business, primarily commercial, has actually been doing really well. It was stalled during covid in favor of vehicles, but it’s ramping now. They have done much more than just Australia, and they’ve actually been very successful. You just don’t hear about it the same as it’s less flashy than cars or AI. They also sell AI driven software to help optimize power grids power arbitrage, which is successful recurring recenue software tack on as well.
Their new facility that’s ramping right now will put out 40gwh a year which is more batteries than some legacy auto manufacturers are using, and they are building a second in China that’s going to start producing in 2024. That’s over a million cars worth of batteries being sold at commercial margins. As the business ramps its going to be as or more profitable than cars excluding a future where FSD is successful. (edit: just for reference, they deployed about 66,000 60kwh cars worth of batteries in Q3)
They’re also getting into the power business in Texas and I’d expect to see that to expand, and their virtual power plant product is also growing and will be a big thing in the future. I’m actually excited about VPP from any and all providers as it’s really going to add security to the power grid while helping out the home owners. A Vermont power company wants to get a home battery in 100% of their customers homes over the next few years.
So keep an eye on all this if it interests you at all, it’s going to be big, and as I said, people are going to start accounting for it.
They made almost a billion profit on that on Q3(edit: I’m an idiot and can’t line items up. It was 381 million profit at about 40% scaled. I mixed up a line with service and other. The point still stands though, you can’t ignore almost 400 million in profit with the rapid growth its showing)As for the AI, analysts really weren’t accounting for it and they weren’t accounting for energy either. You can say they are all crazy for having given tesla those valuations without it if you want, but im just telling you what was really happening. A few like Cathie Woods were, but most weren’t.
And like my edit about car payments. I wouldn’t ever expect the same margins on the 3/y again, but do expect margins and prices to go up as interest rates come down. People buy cars based off the car payment, and those are the same today as when margins were higher and Tesla still sold around 1.8 million vehicles this year at those same payments. If payments become cheaper because interest rates come down, prices will go up somewhat at all manufacturers as there will be more demand for cheaper payments. Those other manufacturers are suffering more than Tesla due to the interest rates and they desperately need them to go down to help with their profitability. The longer this drags on, the worse they’re going to be as ICE restriction start coming into play in various countries.
Also, the competition is coming and teslas market share going down is old and tiring to hear. Tesla isn’t competing against other EV makers, their competing against ICE sales. Their total market share is increasing. The story is always going to be their EV market share is decreasing because if you are at 100% and someone sells 1 car, you’re decreasing. If their total market share is decreasing in a region, then that might be a real problem.
The real competition (edit: within the EV space) is going to be the Chinese EV makers. That I feel is legit. But Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota etc, it’s the same story and they’re still struggling and even cutting back plans. They talk a big talk, but the jury is still out on that one.
I don’t think Tesla AI is worthless without FSD either, but clearly dramatically less without. They do use AI for power as I mentioned, and they’ve diversified their FSD computer into the bot, which is a long shot, but it puts their eggs in 2 baskets instead of 1 which could prevent a complete disaster if FSD fails. The bot is easier to solve than FSD so it’s not out of the question.___
Thank you, that’s a very interesting and thorough response. 👍 From what you write, it all sounds very impressive, question is then why Musk would call Tesla basically worthless without AI?
Well I wrote the competition has already arrived, and yes Tesla may increase market share total, because the total EV market is increasing market share. What I meant is that they can’t sustain their current market share and margins in the EV market. So they will not become as big as the rest of top 10 combined. Tesla may be able to hold their market share for the total market, maybe even increase it a bit. But I strongly suspect even that will go down when the competition is nearer completing the transition period, and compete at full strength. Tesla had a 10 year head start, but in 10 years that won’t matter as much.
The competition from China is already real, and Chinese cars dominate China with BYD having 7 out of 10 top selling cars in China and Tesla only 2, and China is now the biggest market in the world. China is expanding quickly to other markets. We have many Chinese brands in Europe now, that all arrived very recently. But European and American makers like for instance VW and Ford, are also improving rapidly. Then of course there is Hyundai/KIA which is the world 3rd largest maker, that makes some very good EV offerings here.
One of the reasons I think Tesla may lose in the long run, is that they are a very long time about making new models. Maybe it’s just Musk who promises results unrealistically soon. But the delays are sometimes up to 5 years delivering what he claims they can do now!
Just double replying here in case you did read my other reply and just didn’t reply. I made a big oopsie with the energy profit by mixing up lines with service and other. The profit was 381 million, not almost a billion. My bad.
👍