People keep talking about “Federalizing the National Guard” and now you’ve got other States pledging their NG to Texas in defiance of the Supreme Court (see image).
So is this what CW2 looks like?
P.S. I’m a Brit
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Highly unlikely this is what the civil war would be like. It’s not a state v state thing necessarily although that might be a small part of it. In the first civil war, the south unified and its people largely supported the war, except their slaves. It’s unlikely something like that will happen again. It’s not impossible but unlikely.
What is much more likely is rural v city. Even in red states, cities are blue and will often vote for blue policies. Rural areas are where things get dicey. They’ve been largely left behind by the surge in industry and general expansion of the capitalist economy we currently have (they’ve had a lot of businesses (including grocery stores) close because more people are leaving, and their rural towns are frequently having their hospitals close leaving large swaths of areas where the nearest hospital is an hour away). As such, they’ve got a grudge against the cities. What’s likely to happen is rural counties and their local governments trying to cut off their food supply, starving the cities to win the battle. There’s tons more possibilities, but this one I think is the one that’s got the highest likelihood.
Another possibility that is scary, but is highly dependent on the party of the people in power, is the government using their power to actually strike the cities, like in Syria where Assad bombed and used chemical weapons on his own people. Syria is actually a pretty good example of what more modern civil wars are like, or can be like. Governments v rebels and militias, and cities v rural (although there’s much less rural land in Syria).
If you’re interested, the podcast It Could Happen Here has a great first season where they go over possible disasters including a civil war and a pandemic (it was actually made in 2019 so before covid). It’s really helpful and can teach a lot, especially for an outsider from across the pond. It also does a lot better job giving an explanation and actual sources.
Hope this helps since it didn’t seem like you were getting a real answer.
The geographical separation of slave states by an actual border allowed the first Civil War to take place on a stage perfectly suited for traditional warfare. North/South division and the formal joining of the Confederacy by state governments kept it all straightforward. Point South and tell the generals “Go.”
It definitely won’t be that simple again.
I also recommend It Could Happen Here
Another thing the world ought to know is that the folks who are identified by “red” and “right” in America are in the minority.
Significantly so.
However our voting system uses geography / land as a modifier so while there are less of them they occupy a larger land mass and have an outsized vote strength because of that.
When total votes in a state can be split 45-55 but the delegates go 90-10 there is a problem
Another fun thing about that is that most folks who identify “red” or “right” actually aren’t paying enough attention to know that. Go ask them, they think people like them make up 70% or more of the country. If they do try to activate their little civil war they are going to find themselves very quickly surrounded by folks who do not like them at all, as their expected 200-million strong army ends up actually only being 1.5 million people spread out over 30,000+ square miles. Watching the realization dawn on them might actually even be fun if it weren’t a herald of Troubles for America.
Another thing the world ought to know is that the folks who are identified by “red” and “right” in America are in the minority.
Significantly so.
This isn’t accurate. In 2020, 29% of voters identified as Republican, 33% as Democrat, and 34% as independent. There certainly were more Democrats, but only by a 5% margin.
Playing up exaggerated differences between the number of Democrats and Republicans and emphasizing the “we outnumber you” rhetoric is extremist and should be avoided. It makes you a part of the problem.
What is much more likely is rural v city.
Isn’t it even more likely trump disciples vs reasonable people?
So if you break it down (based on the last I looked at it, Pew Research iirc):
- Urban counties are twice as likely to be Democratic
- Suburban had leaned Republican for years, but suburbs have been leaning Democrat for a bit under a decade.
- Rural (on the same timeframe as the suburbs) has been going more Republican, though just a bit less in the ratio as Urban.
The most Trump support is in rural, where more than half support him fully (so full maga territory). Republicans there are more likely to be full maga than in suburbs or urban areas, where republican maga support drops by about 10%.
Democrats in the same areas are fairly equal across the board in their lack of support for trump, about a 50% greater dislike by Democrats in those areas then liked by Republicans.
The urban, suburban, rural breakdown is very accurate as a representation of maga enthusiasm.
EDIT: I though it important to mention too that Republicans in rural areas have an age split as well. Gen X-ish and up is where the support for Trump is, about 50% more than the millennial and under Republicans.
This is oversimplifying the problem. Democrats from urban areas have failed for decades to adequately address the needs and concerns of rural voters. When one party ignores you (and often speaks of you with open contempt), it’s a no-brainer that you would be inclined to vote for the party that caters to your concerns. The Democrats handed rural voters to Trump on a golden platter.
“Fuck yeah, secession!” Says the Texan from the comfort of their lounge chair, beer in hand.
These people are too comfortable to ever be willing to die for their stupid ideals. All it took was one MAGA idiot to get blasted on Jan 6th and then they all scattered like roaches. As soon as their lives were on the line, it was no longer a matter of grave importance. They all firmly believed that democracy was at stake, but were unwilling to fight for it to the death because they somehow must have known that it was bullshit, somewhere in the back of their pea-sized brains, they knew.
By the time Texas starts asking people to show up to mustering fields, rifle in hand, the facade will fall apart. Biden doesn’t need to do anything. This sideshow of bluster and saber-rattling will fall apart on it’s own.
Also, millions of people living in Texas are not originally from Texas and have no particular allegiance to Texas.
Also millions of people in Texas and are FROM Texas don’t want this.
Also, as a native Texan that still lives here because it’s not feasible to leave, I feel no particular allegiance to Texas. This government doesn’t represent anything I stand for – it’s infuriating. Fuck Texas, and fuck proud Texans.
And the economic powerhouses of the state (Dallas, Houston, Austin) all lean democratic. This will just make skilled, educated people leave the state and accelerate the brain drain that’s been happening since the 40s.
You’re thinking first civil war. This civil war is going to be about bombing and terror. And it will be MAGA idiots bombing govt facilities. But they’ll start first with places like gay bars and libraries.
THEN the federal govt will get involved and it will devolve into a shit show from there.
The federal government is already involved. The FBI has been a thing for decades. Are we really going to compare the pathetic levels we have now to the 1950s with the KKK?
Here is the truth to any wannabe terrorist: none of you have gotten smarter but the federal government has. You are one guy, the government is a whole mess of guys spending decades studying ways to stop you. No company has any incentive to help you and has a big incentive to report you. Everyone is tracked now, every transaction recorded, every internet post, heck our very movements.
Random acts are going to happen and it is awful but any kinda coordinated resistance will fail.
Plus you know we are all fat now. Successful resistance movements are led by poor people who can live off the land. That Bundy Ranch ordering takeout thing really illustrated it well. Who do you know in your life that is capable of living in the woods as a revolutionary? Do you really see someone like Hannity or Ted Cruz sitting in a cave somewhere to lead his forces?
texas, or any state, would be crushed forthwith.
It’s not a totally unreasonable impression, but no, this will not turn into a second civil war. The Guard units of each state can be called up for federal duty. The National Guard is part of the US Department of Defense and thus ultimately answers to the DoD and the US president as commander in chief. The US military has multiple components, including regular services (eg the full time Army), reserve components (eg US Army Reserve) and National Guard components. The latter two are part-time military with one weekend per month training duty plus an annual training. Guards members and Reservists hold regular full time jobs.
The Guard units are deployable by the governors of their respective states, and so can be used in emergency situations like natural disasters. They have also been deployed against what have been perceived as riots that threaten lives and properties of the individual states.
However, they are subject to activation by order of the US president and they fall under the national command authority. Guard personnel take the same oath to the constitution as other military personnel, and cannot legally refuse federal activation. Guards personnel would be subject to courts martial and face potentially extreme penalties including being discharged from service under criminal conditions, being stripped of rank and benefits, and jail time in federal prison. This would be what we call a career limiting rule.
So, if push comes to shove, Biden can activate the NG and order them to stand down or to implement policies to maintain order. Thinking the NG units and in particular their commanders would disobey a presidential order because they just love their state governor and hate the president so much is getting into Turner Diaries levels of right wing apocalyptic fantasy.
All of which misses a critical point:
The forming of the Confederacy wasn’t “legal” either.
We can handwave away concerns about mounting threats of violence by citing regulation and law, but none of that actually addresses the underlying issue that if these people want to start shit, they will find an avenue.
And let’s also not sit here, in 2024, and assume the institutions, norms, checks, and intended safeguards in our system will always work when they need to. We’ve seen far, far too many breakdowns and failures in our system over the last decade to believe otherwise.
That’s what frustrates me so much about the framing of the situation we’re in right now: most people - and the vast majority of major media organizations - are fully intent on presenting this as “normal”, but it’s very fucking clearly not. It’s assumed by so many that the rules will simply be followed… and then they turn around and cover Trump, whose whole bit is to not follow the rules because he doesn’t feel like it and wants to stay in power forever. It’s like being unconcerned about standing 3 feet away from an uncaged, unleashed siberian tiger because someone once told you at one point that it had been “trained”.
You have to understand that the US military today is a very different organization than it was in the 1860s. I know - I served and majored in military history for my first undergraduate degree, and studied the civil war in particular. I also come from a military family with a father, grandfather, and uncle who served as officers until retirement age.
Far right domestic terrorism is a real and developing threat coming from both former military personnel and from civilians. The election of a far right government that shreds the constitution is also a major threat to American democracy. But if the shit does come down, it’s not going to be because some Guardsmen decide that they’d follow DeSantis over Biden.
Military justice is no joke. Falling on the wrong side of it can end people. The military is also very integrated and has political as well as ethnic diversity. I’m not saying you couldn’t find an Army colonel who wouldn’t want to engage in an armed rebellion, but the country today is very, very different than it was mid-19th century, and so is the military.
Please do note that I do see the rise of American fascism as a real threat. It’s just not going to manifest because state Guard orgs decide to disobey orders.
Thank you for sharing this insight! It’s frustrating to hear everyone everywhere speculate about how easily the active military would turn, not considering…well, everything you wrote.
Yeah, ex-military of course is part of the brainwashed; nowhere else in the civilian world (outside of mercenary work) is warfare conducting knowledge of direct use.
Add that our Government has not always done even the bare minimum for our vets, and you got a recipe for the radicalization of the “disenfranchised warriors” (quotation because I don’t consider oathbreakers worthy of any title).
They’re gonna fall and listen to the honeyed words of Fascism in a different, harder way than your average civilian. That’s a call to something they amongst the rest of their group are genuinely and tangibly valuable for–until they aren’t.
Please do note that I do see the rise of American fascism as a real threat. It’s just not going to manifest because state Guard orgs decide to disobey orders.
Same, and I do still worry for the death tolls. That “theirs” (the civilians, who can be said to not know better) would be orders of magnitude higher than any on the military’s side doesn’t mean I’d like to see deaths on either side.
Since you studied the Civil War, I got a book from my grandfather before he passed, Don’t Know Much about The Civil War, by Kenneth C. Davis, and was wondering if you’ve read of heard of this book and if it would be a good resource or not to read about the Civil War? Or if you can recommend another book or author that is great for learning about the Civil War, I’d appreciate any helpful insights as I’m curious to learn more about the Civil War, thank you.
The Battle Cry of Freedom is pretty widely seen as being one of the best introductions to the civil war.
Thank you! Luckily it’s at my local library so I’ll pick this up first thing tomorrow if they’re open, appreciate your help!
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Robert E Lee famously didn’t want to fight the North but didn’t think of himself as a traitor for doing so, because his loyalty was to his state first, to the US second. And that was a common mindset at the time.
I think it’s possible that there will be resentment, but those with rank would be risking everything for zero gain. It would be determined by the people who wear the birds and the stars, and although there have certainly been high ranking officers who have engaged in conduct we might consider treasonous, it’s simply not going to be a common enough occurrence.
A Handmaid’s Tale scenario, where the US goes down the path of a Christian theocracy, is a possibility that concerns me,
.
You also have to factor in the fact that the military today is not a bunch of guys with rifles. It is carrier battle groups, fighter jets, sophisticated artillery systems, and other platforms that require massive supply chains to deploy and maintain. That’s just what modern warfare is. US aircraft carriers alone are crewed by 5000+ people.
Raytheon, Northrop, and Lockheed are not going to side with Ohio against the US government. The question is about civil war, not about a single military unit going rogue until the members are arrested or killed. Keeping planes in the air and tanks running requires a lot more than Ohio can do. The Feds spend about a trillion dollars per year on the military, and some Confederate missile battery is going to be in trouble once they run low on things to shoot and when their vehicles start to break down.
I’m not a fan of the military industrial complex, to say the least, but it’s an absolutely necessary part of warfare today.
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The difficulty with that scenario is that the US is bound by two oceans and has a navy more powerful in some estimates than the rest of the navies in the world combined. Ukraine can be supplied because they’re contiguous with Western Europe. North Korea could be supplied by China, as could Vietnam. To supply the neo-confederates, Russia or China would have to cross an ocean and get past the US Navy, as well as the navies of other allied countries. Then they’d have to bring in the systems via either Mexico or Canada, both of which would be allied with the US.
I think you could imagine a scenario where they smuggle in small arms, but not artillery or other modern weapons systems.
Unlikely, but if those ng declined federal call up, then all bets are off
You’ll find some dumb schmucks that refuse, but there’s no way the entire NG would refuse
Right but I’m talking about the mechanics of how it would happen. Agree, logically that many would honor the federal oath
They have also been deployed against what have been perceived as riots that threaten lives and properties of the individual states.
Yeah, like when they got called up against random citizens in Minneapolis…
I said this in another thread-
Most Americans aren’t interested or even capable of fighting in a civil war. When you live paycheck-to-paycheck, you’re not going to abandon your family to fight on the front lines.
And a huge percentage of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck.
Texas would have to have a draft.
Good luck with that.
A lot of you all must be too young to remember. This isn’t a new thing for Texas to do. They threatened to secede at least once (maybe twice) while Obama was president. Once it was straight out of the North Korean playbook, claiming a training exercise the military was conducting was a cover for a military invasion of Texas.
The older I get the more I eyeroll at the political posturing. It’s definitely worse than when I was younger, but also it’s all happened before. It’s just loud people trying to be loud to keep us all afraid and obediently going to work, then every 4 years it gets loud again so we vote for who they want us to.
Real convenient the border is such a huge issue a few months before the election.
Of course we still have to take it seriously, the minute we let our guard down they start implementing stuff, look at roe v wade, but even then they didn’t know what to do after that. It’s all about staying in power for them
I get what you’re saying, but at some point we have to admit that there really aren’t any adults at the table. A direct example is the governments covid response and another more recent is the emergence of the so-called freedom caucus. Basically I subscribe to the depressing notion that all these fuck head fascists that came before have sewn their seeds and now there is an alarmingly large amount of the populace who have drank the koolaid, made from those seeds, and even worse is a lot of the original sewers (heh), have lost the thread and are drinking their own koolaid…
Ok, but we also haven’t had such extreme right wingers in mainstream government before.
And also, what about the National Guard thing?
When was it worse, why?
So much this.
And thats why I’m not worried about them doing anything other than what they’re already doing. They know they would be fucked if they leave.
And if they do? Well then we deal with it when that time comes. Hopefully a bunch of left leaning people leave, including my brother and his wife, and a bunch of MAGAts can go there and talk about how much they love America while also leaving it.
They’d have no issue, they already consider everything outside of their small town to be Fake America.
There was some guy back in the day who was stating in all seriousness, that Texas was more hurt by the 9/11 attacks than New York was.
more butthurt
Texas has made an issue over their independence and God-given right to be Texas, in defense of
theirthe right to own chattel slavery since their first secession. From Mexico. In 1836.Texas reconfirmed their desire to die on the hill of their divine right to own people, by seceding from the US in 1861.
After the civil war, Texas was a haven for the Confederates - and their ideology has been fomenting ever since
They’ve been talking of secession openly since at least the 1990s.
I think this is the first time since the civil war that other states have involved their national guards in support of a hotbed issue that could lead to a secession.
Edit: correction to grammatical error.
The Dollop did a podcast on Jade Helm as it was happening. Definitely recommend listening to that one if you like American history podcasts. It’s episode 100 I believe
At current, this is all posturing. If Biden does engage the military to stop them. Perhaps lock up the governors for treason, maybe it could escalate somewhat. If something did happen that was in the line of being more serious, it wouldn’t be a long incursion as long as the military obeyed the commander in chief. The national guard is absolutely no match for even a small slice of the might of the US military.
If something does happen, hopefully they’ll shut it down quickly and bloodlessly, maybe finally gather enough strength to enable some Germany type of anti-fascism laws.
We need to fix gerrymandering, we need to fix people screwing with elections. We need to put some strong protections against the propaganda and opinion pieces flowing out of all the news outlets. We need to force free non-political basic education to the entire f****** country so people can make some informed decisions about s***.
I’m tired of everybody looking at politics like it’s a f****** football game.
My take on it is that the Republicans will do their best to drag this out until the election. No compromising or middle ground. Just make it out to be the crazy Democrats fault. This stuff gets to be very predictable after all these years.
This is exactly why DeSantis wants to revive the Florida State Guard.
Biden should ignore Abbott right until the point he signs an order to interfere with Federal agents on duty. Then it’s a conspiracy & the Insurrection Act can be brought into play to clean house.
Florida State Guard
I had to search for that and it sounds kinda bad for states to have their own armies. I mean it’s practically the definition of raising an army in opposition to the Federal government. Looking at Wikipedia it was first activated in WWII to make up for the national guard going to war.
That bit makes sense.
But you’re not at war and you just reactivated it in 2020. Why? Why would Florida need it’s own army? That’d be like the Wales FM creating it’s own guard. By it’s nature it’s in direct opposition to the national (British) military. There’s no other way of looking at it.
That feels like a major thing. Am I taking crazy pills - why is no one screaming? This is bad!!
Am I taking crazy pills - why is no one screaming? This is bad!!
This dog stays barking every single year and hasn’t bit anyone yet. Getting tired of hearing about it. Either they’re going to do something or they won’t, if they don’t, then they can shut the fuck up and life goes back to normal. If they do decide to finally do something about it, Texas gets razed to the ground and we rebuild NASA somewhere else. There is no situation here in which any significant percentage of people, except Texans, are going to be in danger. They will not take on the greater federal US and win, it’s not gonna happen. If they secede, they die, after losing all federal safety nets and trade agreements and then getting invaded by cartels. If they attempt an actual shooting war, they die, as 25,000 cowpokes show up with surplus AR’s just in time for Lockheed Martin to put a warhead on their foreheads.
I want to be clear that I’m not in any way looking forward to this. It’s going to be rough and innocent people will die. But there is no legitimate path forward in which Texas doesn’t, at best, eat its hat. However that won’t stop them from threatening secession constantly. Any time something doesn’t go their way - “oh, oh, but I’ll leave the union! What then??? What’ll you do without Texas??” Fuck off Texas. Either shit or get off the pot but I’m tired of hearing about it. Texas brings nothing irreplaceable to the table and while I definitely do not think that turning Texas into glass is the good ending, it sure is one ending, and might be the one Texas chooses. Regardless I’m not that worried about it. The Gravy Seals wouldn’t stand up to an actual well-regulated militia let alone the full force and might of the United States Army. And there are a lot more leftists with guns than the Gravies think there are.
Edit: just realized this was intended in the context of the Florida State Guard - that I know almost nothing about. But Florida is perhaps even less threatening than Texas, and since DeSantis has been in charge they’ve been doing a lot of nearly identical toothless posturing. All arguments also apply to Florida, except that at least 21% of their population is retirement age or older so they don’t even have that many fresh bodies to call on when their state guard gets turned into burger meat within two days of declaration of war.
I hate how people casually write about glassing innocent Americans as an acceptable outcome since it isn’t themselves and their families up for annihilation. “Let’s just get this killing over with it’s just too tedious for me to read about.”
Honestly I hate it too. This isn’t the America I saw coming when I was younger. But it’s also not like these are unforeseen consequences. Greg Abbott has fucked around and it has now come time to find out. It hurts my heart that innocent people are going to be caught up in the consequences of his actions, but such is the way of war. And Abbott is going to turn this into a war, make no mistake.
Poor men dying for the mistakes of rich men is a tale as old as time and we haven’t left that era yet. I wish no harm on the common folk of Texas. But the unfortunate truth is that I’d expect the same in my state, if my state governor decried federal law in favor of murdering migrant children and then threatened secession from the union over it. Abbott is dangerously unstable and is taking Texas down with him. Texas can either rid themselves of this problem, through vote or otherwise, or they can go down with the sinking ship.
I’d much rather just remove and relocate the sensible folks until all that’s left in Texas are the treasonous officials and their pet army, and solve this problem without collateral damage. But we all know very well that that isn’t going to happen. They can and will use the lives of innocents to shield their own, just like terrorists always have, the world over. And to those people I say, I’m sorry. You don’t deserve this. If your death does prove necessary I hope that it can help guide us to a brighter tomorrow, the same I’d hope for my own. But that’s the reality of a terrorist warzone, is people will die, and the world keeps turning. There’s no point trying to ignore it, in fact the more we actively ignore the situation the worse it’s going to get before it gets any better. We need to cut the head from the snake before the snake poisons the rest of the country, or even world.
Yea you’re just as crazy as they are buddy.
Oh goody goody gooooody!!! 🍿
Can we just have a normal, boring year for once, please? I’m so tired…
No this is all Republican division. It’s their only playbook to rally their base. The take home message for everyone is VOTE, VOTE, VOTE. Before the election started up we had a nice quiet 2-1/2 years. This kind of shit only appeals to those that love the chaos that Trump will bring back.
Seems to be a distinct possibility. Posturing prior to the election, rattling sabers, they’re spoiling for a full-on shootin’ war contingent on losing the election, in my opinion.
edit: I dare say, it might even be strategically advantageous for them to intentionally try lose, claim it was rigged, and use that to go live with the 4th riech.
I think the tactical nukes will slow their ambitions for another hundred or so years. We can’t take these posturing fools seriously.
We can’t take these posturing fools seriously
Have you just not been paying attention for the last…decade?
Yes, we absolutely should.
No one is using a tactical nuke on US soil. We have enough conventional bombs to destroy ourselves anyway.
And yet, we must. Assume your enemy will lose, but prepare for them to win.
It’s not a new civil war reason. It’s the same one as last time just packaged up a little different.
Racism
It’s not even a new civil war. The last civil war only ended technically. In reality it went cold and has still been being waged all this time. It turned from a war of the rural South against the industrialised north. To a war on the industrialized from the rural.
No, it’s theatrics
An election is upcoming
I don’t think the conservatives are sufficiently unified to form a single opposition army. The problem with basing your appeals on hating “outsiders” is that you end up with a lot of internal hatred too. There’s also a strong undercurrent of “no one can tell me what to do” that makes central control unlikely.
What seems more likely are terrorist incidents, carried out be individuals and small groups, without any overall communication or strategy. We’re already seeing some of that. The lack of coordination won’t prevent it from happeing, but will prevent it from achieving anything.
I don’t think there are very many people within the MAGA movement who honestly want to resort to violence, whatever they tell themselves. The ones who are actually willing are the ones who wanted to hurt someone anyway. Politics provides them with an excuse, not a motivation.
I think we’re going to have a nasty time for a while, but I don’t think a right-wing takeover by violence has any chance of happening. I’m much more worried about a political takeover that then turns into an authoritarian coup. The left-wing has a much better chance of organizing as a whole, but I don’t think there are that many people ready to fight from that side either, but that could change as conditions get worse.
The right has been used, and steadily intensifying stochastic terrorism for a while now. You’re right, it’s not a strategy for a military takeover of the US. It’s just one step in the political takeover.
Those states are going to be in a rude awakening when they realize they are broke because the blue states are by far the largest contributors to federal funding. When they cut that off, the welfare state will come crawling back quickly.
The welfare states regularly turn down federal funding because they do not care about the lower income portions of their state. Alabama will just have fewer people able to feed their selves.
Which they will blame on the blue states.
Texas gets $53,000,000,000 in federal funding every year. They’ll cave.
