Actually, Silver says it’s basically a toss up.
Turn out, bring your friends, and if you see some voter suppression bullshit, call it out.
help people register! know any deadlines
I’ve been watching the model and the polling and it’s just been pure improvement the entire way for her. She came from behind in the models and polling. So to be a toss up is a massive improvement.
None of us should ever take these seriously. We need to encourage people to vote as though our lives depend on it (because, in some ways, they do)
Fox News hasn’t had time to thoroughly work her over yet.
I’m hoping they need literal years to get their machine oriented on her. People forget Fox news worked on Clinton for 24 years before she ran for President.
oh I’m sure they’ll find an email server, laptop, or some other bullshit to whine about.
- she’s black
- she’s not black
- she laughs
Checkmate, libtards
I thought everyone hated and didnt trust Nate Silver? Or was that because of cult of personality politics?
Don’t trust polls or pundits. Just get out and vote…
I plan on voting, but it won’t be for the red fascist or blue fascist.
Well I’m sure the trans people who would be forced to detransition, the climate refugees forced to flee their homes, the women forced into dangerous pregnancies, the Palestinians who will receive even less support from the US, and the people of Ukraine forced to live under Russian occupation without our support will obviously agree that it’s most important for you to have a clear conscience here.
Nice cherry picked hyperbole list you got there. Too bad your party leaders don’t give a fuck about those things either.
Hyperbole list? Every one of these things is a stated objective of the trump campaign or is literally already happening.
If you truly can’t see daylight between the republicans and the democrats, you need to:
- appreciate the privilege you have, that you apparently aren’t staring down the barrel of their guns yet
- touch grass, take a break from politics for awhile
- when you come back, look at voting records and their actual impacts on actual people. Read the stories of women forced to miscarry in ER bathrooms as a direct result of what the republicans have done in this country. Read about how republicans stalling aid to Ukraine impacted the war. Read about the 6-3 rulings coming out of the Supreme Court lately, and look at who appointed the 6.
Removed by mod
Removed, civility.
Hate to break this to you, but it’s pretty much guaranteed one of those two options will win. The voting system sucks but it is what we have.
Okay, still not voting for either one of them. If people would refuse to keep participating in their own subjugation, shit might change
Bad news, buddy: you won’t have to participate in your own subjugation. You will be subjugated, whether you choose to be or not.
The idea that you can change the system by not voting just means that you’re going to be irrelevant to whoever does win.
One side is doing insurrections, promising to be a dictator, promising that this year will be the last vote. “Better throw my ballot in the garbage in exchange for zero EC votes.”
Silver has increasingly followed the money and begun leaning further and further to the right
His politics have moved to the right but I haven’t seen any evidence it’s affecting his predictions yet. We’ll see.
If his predictions start landing consistently to the right of reality then that’s just another data point. The modelling world is fun like that.
Nate Silver’s polling has been wrong before and it will be wrong again.
He’s wrong very frequently. He had a couple amazing parlays and people think he has some special sauce.
People who say this don’t ever really back this up. Nate Silver has pretty consistently maintained >90% accuracy across not just presidential races but primaries, gubernatorial, and congressional races. Ultimately thousands of races. Remember, he his probability != a prediction. Just because someone has 70-30 odds doesn’t mean they win 100% of the time. It means if that race was run 100,000 times, 30,000 times would be a loss. Accuracy can be determined by grouping a sample of such 70-30 races to see if they follow that trend. Lo and behold, Nate’s algorithm generally does.
Obviously events change and predictions cannot rapidly factor in, say, Comey’s October Surprise…but in this era of absurdity, I’m not sure we really have any more shocking surprises that can top what we’ve already seen and know.
These are good markers to see how messaging and strategy for each side is working and whether a change needs to happen. It should have zero bearing on voting which everyone should do whether you’re winning in a landslide or not.
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