Analysis: Even in a close election, random chance means polls should be showing a broader range of results. That raises the question of whether we’re in for another polling surprise.
BUT good poll results aren’t just “we polled 1,000 people and here’s who they’re voting for.”
Good pollsters take demographic data when they poll. They model the biases of different demos, and they correct for those biases in their models.
Yes, reducing underrepresentation at poll time would be ideal. But pollsters are smart and are doing their best to put out good models. Pollsters know Gen Z is underrepresented and are accounting for that already.
In other words, don’t let Gen Z underrepresentation in the polls lull you into a false sense of security. The polls are accurate. The race is neck and neck.
BUT good poll results aren’t just “we polled 1,000 people and here’s who they’re voting for.”
Good pollsters take demographic data when they poll. They model the biases of different demos, and they correct for those biases in their models.
Yes, reducing underrepresentation at poll time would be ideal. But pollsters are smart and are doing their best to put out good models. Pollsters know Gen Z is underrepresented and are accounting for that already.
In other words, don’t let Gen Z underrepresentation in the polls lull you into a false sense of security. The polls are accurate. The race is neck and neck.