- Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen opposes imposing neutrality on Ukraine
- Valtonen questions Russia’s trustworthiness in adhering to agreements
- Forcing Ukraine to accept terms could undermine international system, Valtonen says
Forcing neutrality onto Ukraine will not bring about a peaceful solution to the crisis with Russia, Finland’s foreign minister said on Monday, adding that Moscow could not be trusted to adhere to any agreement it signs.
[…]
With the prospect of U.S. president elect Donald Trump seeking to end the conflict as quickly possible and concerns from some allies that the terms could be imposed in Kyiv, one scenario could be to force a neutral status on Ukraine.
Russia has repeatedly demanded Ukraine remain neutral for there to be peace, which would de facto kill its aspirations for NATO membership.
Russia trust issues
[…] Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen poured cold water on using the “Finlandisation” model, pointing out that firstly Helsinki had fended off Russia in World War 2 and that despite the ensuing peace had always continued to arm itself fearing a new conflict.
“I’m against it (Finlandisation), yes. Let’s face it, Ukraine was neutral before they were attacked by Russia,” Valtonen, whose country has a 1,300-km (810-mile) border with Russia, said on the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum.
[…]
The Ukraine invasion led both Finland and Sweden to abandon decades of military non-alignment and seek safety in the NATO camp.
Valtonen questioned whether Russia could be trusted even if it agreed a deal and said forcing Ukraine’s hand to accept terms against its will would tear down the international system.
“I really want to avoid a situation where any European country, or the United States for that matter, starts negotiating over the heads of Ukraine,” she said.
“A larger power can not just grab territory, but also essentially weaken the sovereignty of another nation,” she said.
Which country would that be? Russia is not going for a direct confrontation with NATO as it would loose that for sure.
If they get Ukraine they would turn it into a compliant regime as a buffer zone. Using its war-economy is far more profitable in enforcing access to natural resource in Asia or Africa, rather than go to war with Poland or Finland.
Why then is Russia so heavily involved in creating disinformation and helping socially weak, pro-autocratic, isolationist leaders gain power in the West? They are trying to divide and conquer EU and US, because Russian military and economic power wouldn’t be enough to take on a united EU/US.
And note that I said economic power as well. Despite present-day Russia being a glorified petrol station to the world, they are trying to realize their “Eurasia” trade zone.
They aren’t strong enough to take on each separately, either. For Russia to attain their coveted superpower status they’d need to stop fucking around and actually invest in themselves. They do have more than enough land and resources, they have a reasonably well-educated population, it wouldn’t take that long trouble is they’re a kleptocracy and the chief kleptocrat thinks being a superpower is measured in land mass.
My point is they’re strong enough to take on smaller individual EU countries with military force. And they can gain mindshare in bigger European countries.
I don’t think they’re deluded enough to think they can gain a permanent mental grip over the US, but that’s irrelevant to their territorial plans anyway.
The EU is a defensive pact in itself and while “defend our brothers” sentiment is not tightly woven, there’s a tripwire cascade. You cannot attack Estonia without every single Finn being personally offended, and you cannot separate Finland and Sweden in military matters, the list goes on and on. The effect flattens out the further away you get but you’d be hard-pressed to find a member thinking twice about sending arms and MREs. Poland would have boots on the ground before Spain gets the call.
Estonia. The fuck has Estonia ever done to anyone. They’re essentially a mascot of the EU: Them being, willingly, part of the pack is witness to the EU actually being a post-colonial project. They’re way too precious to be left hanging. I can’t even bring myself to make an alcoholism joke right now.
This is what everyone was saying looking at those 100kish Russian soldiers at the Ukrainian border at the beginning of 2022. “They won’t do it, that is not enough men”.
And who says it is going to be a open escalation? Remember Crimea? Hacking attacks? Russia is all about destabilisation just below the threshold of clear and open aggression. Them stirring up some bullshit in for example Narva will put the west to the test. And I’m sure there will be a lot of voices on our side warning against an open conflict with Russia just because they seized a small border town in a small country.
It’s the same as in Ukraine: if Putin has enough reason to believe it might work, he will try it.
I live in one country that could be next. Putin already has useful idiots here daying thay we should leave NATO. Putin also tried to push for these countries thay used to be in the Russian sphere of influence not to be in NATO.
You make one step back and Putin makes two forward.