I think AI isn’t going to replace the upper level of programmers, but I do believe the absolute number of programmers will drop as AI completes more and more of the labor involved in coding.
A lot of entry level jobs just won’t exist anymore, because the AI will do the typing work while a small number of people manage the AI.
And this will apply to pretty much all white collar work - at least that’s my prediction.
I believe that besides blue collar jobs, AI will practically eradicate the middle class, and sadly there won’t be a UBI to pick up the slack. But maybe I’m just too damn cynical.
A lot of entry level jobs just won’t exist anymore, because the AI will do the typing work while a small number of people manage the AI.
I don’t think that’s so clear-cut. The impact of AI on software development seems to be equivalent to using a refactoring tool on steroids. Even if it eliminates the carpal tunnel syndrome aspect of coding, you still need people who can write code to not only validate the output but also fix it when things go wrong, which often do.
The reality is, that most software is complex, but trivial. It’s s bunch of requirements, but there’s no magic behind it. An AI that can turn a written text containing the requirements into a decently running program will replace tons of developers.
And since a future AI, that’s actually trained to do software, won’t have problem juggling 300 requirements at once (like humans have), it’s relatively easy to trust the result.
I think that’s assuming a relatively consistent level of scope, but the scope will just get bigger. How big is your feature backlog? Will you be able to easily get through it even with the help of AI? How big will your feature backlog get if implementation friction is lowered?
I think AI isn’t going to replace the upper level of programmers, but I do believe the absolute number of programmers will drop as AI completes more and more of the labor involved in coding.
A lot of entry level jobs just won’t exist anymore, because the AI will do the typing work while a small number of people manage the AI.
And this will apply to pretty much all white collar work - at least that’s my prediction.
I believe that besides blue collar jobs, AI will practically eradicate the middle class, and sadly there won’t be a UBI to pick up the slack. But maybe I’m just too damn cynical.
I don’t think that’s so clear-cut. The impact of AI on software development seems to be equivalent to using a refactoring tool on steroids. Even if it eliminates the carpal tunnel syndrome aspect of coding, you still need people who can write code to not only validate the output but also fix it when things go wrong, which often do.
But those people don’t need to be programmers.
The reality is, that most software is complex, but trivial. It’s s bunch of requirements, but there’s no magic behind it. An AI that can turn a written text containing the requirements into a decently running program will replace tons of developers.
And since a future AI, that’s actually trained to do software, won’t have problem juggling 300 requirements at once (like humans have), it’s relatively easy to trust the result.
I think that’s assuming a relatively consistent level of scope, but the scope will just get bigger. How big is your feature backlog? Will you be able to easily get through it even with the help of AI? How big will your feature backlog get if implementation friction is lowered?