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Cake day: July 17th, 2024

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  • I mean, no, a Landslide is historically defined as 400 EVs and that hasn’t happened in a while, not even Obama quite got there.

    But it is the biggest victory a Republican has had since 1988. I don’t get all the hemming and hawing about mandates and plurality of PV vs majority of PV and stuff. This was a bigger win for the Republicans then 2000, 2004, and 2016. 2004 is the only one that’s even debatable. Harris lost harder than any democrat since Micheal Dukakis. And while a lot of that is people who only show up for Trump and thus it’s possible 2028 is a democrat wave, there’s also a lot of people specifically turned off by Trump who might not mind the far younger Vance(who had the biggest glowup this year of the 4 people on the tickets, he went from bottom in popularity to comparable to Walz, meanwhile Trump and Walz stagnated and Harris surged and then un-surged)


  • While they benefited from it later at this point Virginia was a population powerhouse, the actual states pushing for this were the small New England states, I think some of them only gave up their giant western claims(google ‘long connecticut’) in exchange for it.

    It was also a compromise. Proto-Federalists wanted a direct democracy determined by population, Proto-Democratic-Republicans wanted each state to get one vote. In the end they split the difference, House was determined by population, Senate by states, and the president by a hybrid system that didn’t fully give either what they wanted.

    If you went back in time to stop the electoral college you could just as easily get a ‘One vote per state for president, 26 votes wins’ system instead of a direct democracy.













  • Swing State is 5 point margin or less. Virginia is like 5.1 right now so it’s arguably stretching the definition, but still.

    Also as I pointed out, that argument doesn’t hold up nearly as well in New Hampshire or Minnesota. Trump basically ignored NH despite giving Virginia and New Mexico plenty of attention. NJ got more attention. Hell, NY and Cali got more attention. He visited it with Vance once at the literal last minute because of how hard the polls tightened in the last week(see 538). Not to mention the third party spread there was horrible for him, RFK Jr and Chase Oliver both there(and New Hampshire Republicans are very libertarian), and just Jill Stein on the left, no Cornel or Claudia or one of the fringe Socialists.

    Take out RFK Jr, add in Claudia or Cornel, get Trump to give them the same level of attention he gave Virginia or New Mexico, maybe make a speech with those clips of Democrats calling to end New Hampshire and Iowas Primary lead spot vowing to protect their first primary role. I genuinely think it would have flipped Red in that scenario.

    The other two no, but Minnesota had their Golden Boy as the VP and only held by less than 4 points. Without him? With more Trump visits? Ehhhh. New Mexico was mostly fine, I’m pretty much entirely citing 1.1% of the vote going to RFK Jr. Probably past the Swing State margin without that. Also there’s a new Liberal Party there made from moderate Libertarians.