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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • We’ve really screwed the pooch when it comes to climate change, so far. Most of it is due to greed, corruption, and the incredible influence of the fossil fuels industry, but I think climate activists have hurt their own cause, in some ways.

    For whatever reason, climate activists have really focused on EVs, really trying to push rapid adoption through tax incentives and mandates. But the industry wasn’t ready. Profit margins at the lower end of the market, where most car buyers are, were too low due to the still relatively high cost of batteries, so the industry focused on the premium/luxury end of the market where margins were higher. The EV market became flooded with expensive vehicles that there just wasn’t enough demand for. It has resulted in people associating EVs with expensive luxury, and that’s the opposite of what we want for mass adoption. Also, the build out of critical infrastructure has been haphazard. The monopoly tactics of Tesla, and Elon Musk being an insane lunatic haven’t helped either.

    But passenger vehicles account for such a small overall percentage of global GHG emissions, I don’t know why so much of the focus was on EVs to begin with. We should have been focused on the real climate change culprit, and that’s electricity generation.

    We have shut down a lot of coal power plants, which is definitely a good thing, but most of them have been replaced with natural gas plants, which is not a good thing.

    And that brings me to the other big mistake made by many climate activists: they insisted that we focus only on renewables, and refused to support nuclear, even though nuclear is a zero GHG emission technology.

    The fact is, renewables are a very different electric generation technology, compared to coal, natural gas and nuclear. The latter can increase output in real time, in response to increases in demand. With renewables, whatever is being generated at any given time is what’s available, and if people want more electricity than what renewables are already putting on the grid, there’s nothing you can do. You can’t throw more solar panels on the fire, so to speak. Renewables just represent a complete paradigm shift in the way we generate and consume electricity. Renewables change the economics of electricity generation and delivery, and we did not adequately anticipate impacts of that.

    The question now is: will climate activists recognize these mistakes and change. We’ll see.




  • Who was projecting that global energy related CO2 emissions would increase from 34 gigatons to 50 gigatons between 2014 and 2040? Was that a reasonable projection? What was it based on? Is this evidence of “progress” or inaccurate projecting into the future?

    I can project that the murder rate will increase 50% between now and 2050, and then when the murder rate only goes up 10% I can say, “omg, we’ve made such great progress on the murder rate,” even though it still went up, because it didn’t go up as much as I projected it would. But was my projection likely or even feasible in the first place?



  • Probably someone who lives in the southern US, where it rarely snows. This wouldn’t be unusual for someone living in many northern states, especially those around the great lakes. But to a southerner, this might as well be a different planet. They will close schools and businesses even for relatively light snow in the South. It frightens and bewilders them.



  • A deal to end the 41-day government shutdown is running into turbulence, thanks to a single Senate objection: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

    Senate Republican and Democratic leaders say they need to resolve Paul’s objection to a provision in the government funding package before they can accelerate consideration of the bill. The provision would restrict the unregulated sale of intoxicating…hemp-derived products like Delta-8 at gas stations, corner stores, or online without federal regulation.

    I mean, do we really need this provision, right now? I’m not necessarily opposed to federal regulation of Delta-8 products, but can’t we address that at a later date? Let’s get the government open and worry about Delta-8 later.




  • People who believe strongly in hierarchy, especially what they believe are “natural” hierarchies, are, obviously, opposed to democracy. Democracy is inherently egalitarian, because all voters have exactly the same number of votes: one. In a democracy, the billionaire CEO and the $30,000 a year cashier, have one vote each. No more, no less. The billionaire CEO is more likely to dislike this arrangement because it doesn’t properly respect his “superiority.” It’s ludicrous to the billionaire CEO that a mere cashier should have the same number of votes as him. He might even believe that it is “unnatural,” because he believes that his superiority is something that is innate. He was born superior and he will die superior, and his greater financial success is proof of that innate superiority, and it was inevitable, in his mind.





  • In his memo, Gates wrote that global warming “will not lead to humanity’s demise”. This misunderstands climate scientists’ warnings, said Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy.

    “I have not seen a single scientific paper that ever posited that the human race would become extinct … it’s a straw man, the way he’s proposing it,” she said. “He’s speaking about it as if scientists are saying that, and we’re not: what we are saying is that suffering increases with each 10th of a degree of warming.”

    The memo from a “very influential person who controls a lot of money” hinges on “inarguably a false binary” between a world where everything is fine and “literally the end of the world”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources.

    “In reality, there’s a whole hell of a lot of bad things that can happen in between,” he said.

    Exactly. So many people act like there are only two possibilities: climate change is a hoax, everything’s fine and growth and prosperity will not be affected by global warming. Or climate change is real and it’s going to kill us all. Neither of those two scenarios are likely. We’re not going extinct, but everything isn’t just going to be hunky-dory, either.

    The thing is, no one can tell you exactly where we’ll be by 2100, because that depends on what we do between now and then. If we get our act together and bring down emissions rapidly, we will be in a better spot in 2100 than if emissions remain elevated for longer.

    Personally, I think the most likely scenario is that emissions will stay elevated for a while. I don’t see us decreasing our GHG emissions significantly any time soon.



  • I fixed a family member’s Windows PC once. Stuck in an update boot loop. Had to rebuild the bootloader to fix it. It took ten minutes once I looked up the commands online. He had already taken it to a PC repair shop and they said all they could do was reinstall the operating system. Honestly, these Windows people are like handicapped because they never really interact with their computers. They only interact with a kind of software nanny that keeps them away from the scary stuff for their own good.

    I love my terminal.