Russia’s Arctic route sells speed, at the planet's expense - ArcticToday
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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/44071783

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A recent study published in Nature Communications by Pengjun Zhao, Yunlin Li, Caixia Zhang and co-authors examines how the opening of Arctic shipping routes is set to reshape not just the global shipping traffic, but global carbon emissions. The research points to possible environmental advantages from shorter routes, but also reveals hidden risks that complicate the promise of this new era in maritime trade.

Here is the study published in Nature

Key points:

  • A Shorter Route Doesn’t Guarantee a Cleaner Route: The Arctic shipping route can cut some journeys by up to 40%, particularly between Northern Europe and Northeast Asia, but efficiency gains may be offset by induced shipping demand and shifts in global fleet patterns.
  • Arctic Emissions Could Surge: Maritime emissions within the Arctic could rise sharply, from 0.22% to as much as 2.72% of global shipping emissions, creating a new climate hotspot.
  • Heavy Emitters Set to Dominate: Oil, gas, and chemical tankers are expected to make up the bulk of NSR traffic, amplifying the carbon footprint of rerouted shipping flows.
  • Policy Matters More Than Distance Saved: The study finds that relying on current IMO targets or Green Corridors only modestly reduces emissions. Only a robust Net-Zero strategy with cleaner fuels, caps, and regional implementation could fully offset added Arctic emissions.
  • Risks of Carbon Inequality: Route shifts may concentrate emissions in specific areas while reducing them elsewhere, creating localized “hot spots” of pollution exposure.
  • Technological & Environmental Constraints: Short-term fuel savings may be undermined by Arctic-specific challenges such as extreme weather, heavy fuel oils, spill risks, inadequate infrastructure, and regulatory gaps.

The findings in the study do support claims that the Northern Sea Route is a shorter and cheaper alternative to existing shipping routes. However, the study is only the latest to sound the alarm over the potential environmental and safety risks inherent to the route.

In recent weeks, the Bellona research group presented their findings from years of analysis into the dangers posed by the Northern Sea Route. You’ll find a video on the linked site for some of the main findings.