You all need to remove your sense of morality from foreign policy calculations made by any government. It’s about power, always about power. You may personally view one nation’s values as better and therefore their ideas of power more moral, but still, it’s about power.
For Australia specifically, they are reliant on the US Naval power projection for their conception of Australian national security, which is why even their new Labor government is still moving ahead with AUKUS. It why Australia has always sent their troops to fight in America’s wars (post-WW2), rightly or wrongly.
Even after Vietnam was so bad for Australia that they revamped their entire military to become a “defensive” force and not an explicitly expeditionary one, they still fought in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Those were all chips put into the American security pot, that they’re hoping to be able to call in when they need it.
Those reasons, and more, are why I’m confident that even with Trump, it would take something so drastic and catastrophic to change their calculations, that I don’t want to even try and imagine what that would be. Even if I’m sure Trump could manage to cause whatever catalyst that would be necessary. Still, it wouldn’t just be his reelection. It would be something so much worse.
While you’re correct in a geopolitical sense right now, there’s a strong reason to believe things could get a LOT worse. Trump is worrying close to going full fascist, and the parallels to the rise of Hitler are incredibly worrying. It could absolutely just be overreacting, and maybe it will all blow over, but re-election of Trump would show a very worrying pro-dictatorship pro-white christian nationalist bent in the US. It wouldn’t take much in such a situation to see the MAGA party execute a coup of the US government and head down the same path we’ve seen in the past. They’ve already tried it once after all (or twice if you count the storming the the capital and the attempt to certify fake electors as two separate occurrences), and only failed by the thinnest of margins.
In such a situation it’s easy to see a hypothetical militaristic MAGA party starting a war with China, or possibly even more worryingly with someone in Europe and Australia not wanting to get pulled into the mess that would start. It could very well be the start of WW3 and nobody sane wants to see that.
When I say Trump is a unique threat, I’m speaking in terms of foreign policy and alliances.
I haven’t talked about, nor do I want to talk about, American domestic politics in this thread.
That said, what about my view of Trump as a unique threat in that context, gives you the impression that I don’t think he poses unique threats domestically?
Also, your points about the rise of a MAGA-Reich are pretty far outside the bounds of anything relating to the issue at hand: practical issues relating to Australia’s military alliance and a Trump reelection.
So…not really sure what your point is, at least not in relation to my comment.
You don’t think being in a military alliance with the US, that a fascist coup of the US would have bearing on whether Australia would want to remain in said alliance?
As for American domestic politics, when the discussion is explicitly about “in the event of Trump winning re-election” how is that not about American domestic politics? As a partner to a treaty with the US, particular one that would obligate Australia to get involved in wars started by the US, US domestic politics are very much relevant as those are going to be a strong driver for the kinds of conflicts Australia is liable to be dragged into.
Wanting to ditch the treaty just because Trump won might be an overreaction, but it also might not. Any other president in US history it almost assuredly would be. Prior to Jan. 6th even, it would be. But Trump has not only said on multiple occasions that he wants to be president for life, not only repeatedly admitted admiration for Kim Jong Un, Vladmir Putin, and other dictators, but then attempted his own coup however badly organized and executed it was. ALL countries with military alliances with the US are going to want to take a real hard look at if the benefits out weigh the risks of continuing that relationship if Trump is re-elected. For many that calculus might not change immediately, but you can bet they’re going to be watching 2028 like a fucking hawk assuming he wins in 2024, and if he does pull off the coup this time that’s going to be a real bad time for basically everybody, because the US becoming a dictatorship is a deeply deeply scary proposition.
I don’t think fearcasting into a land of dozens, or hundreds, of interdependent worst case hypotheticals is relevant to a discussion of whether immediately upon Trump’s potential reelection, Australia will end its military alliance with America.
It’s much more of a creative writing exercise, so why stop there?
In my version, China has expanded it A2/AD strategy to include Australian waters. In fact, they’ve forward deployed 2 carrier battle groups 50 nautical miles from Australia’s northern coast.
And I could write pages more, worst case hypotheticals, to explain why in that world everything you’re saying is irrelevant to the American Australian alliance. But, again, it’s not relevant to the topic at hand,: it’s creative writing, not foreign policy.
FYI anyone who has a just below surface level understanding of China’s Three Island Chain Policy, A2/AD, and Wolf Warrior diplomacy, knows that my hypothetical is even slightly more likely then yours. NOT probable, but certainly plausible and requires a lot less to go wrong then your rise of the MAGA-Reich.
You all need to remove your sense of morality from foreign policy calculations made by any government. It’s about power, always about power. You may personally view one nation’s values as better and therefore their ideas of power more moral, but still, it’s about power.
For Australia specifically, they are reliant on the US Naval power projection for their conception of Australian national security, which is why even their new Labor government is still moving ahead with AUKUS. It why Australia has always sent their troops to fight in America’s wars (post-WW2), rightly or wrongly.
Even after Vietnam was so bad for Australia that they revamped their entire military to become a “defensive” force and not an explicitly expeditionary one, they still fought in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Those were all chips put into the American security pot, that they’re hoping to be able to call in when they need it.
Those reasons, and more, are why I’m confident that even with Trump, it would take something so drastic and catastrophic to change their calculations, that I don’t want to even try and imagine what that would be. Even if I’m sure Trump could manage to cause whatever catalyst that would be necessary. Still, it wouldn’t just be his reelection. It would be something so much worse.
While you’re correct in a geopolitical sense right now, there’s a strong reason to believe things could get a LOT worse. Trump is worrying close to going full fascist, and the parallels to the rise of Hitler are incredibly worrying. It could absolutely just be overreacting, and maybe it will all blow over, but re-election of Trump would show a very worrying pro-dictatorship pro-white christian nationalist bent in the US. It wouldn’t take much in such a situation to see the MAGA party execute a coup of the US government and head down the same path we’ve seen in the past. They’ve already tried it once after all (or twice if you count the storming the the capital and the attempt to certify fake electors as two separate occurrences), and only failed by the thinnest of margins.
In such a situation it’s easy to see a hypothetical militaristic MAGA party starting a war with China, or possibly even more worryingly with someone in Europe and Australia not wanting to get pulled into the mess that would start. It could very well be the start of WW3 and nobody sane wants to see that.
The alien discard begins lol, we’ve become too annoying and they’ve decided to infect the people’s brains with war
Jk
When I say Trump is a unique threat, I’m speaking in terms of foreign policy and alliances.
I haven’t talked about, nor do I want to talk about, American domestic politics in this thread.
That said, what about my view of Trump as a unique threat in that context, gives you the impression that I don’t think he poses unique threats domestically?
Also, your points about the rise of a MAGA-Reich are pretty far outside the bounds of anything relating to the issue at hand: practical issues relating to Australia’s military alliance and a Trump reelection.
So…not really sure what your point is, at least not in relation to my comment.
You don’t think being in a military alliance with the US, that a fascist coup of the US would have bearing on whether Australia would want to remain in said alliance?
As for American domestic politics, when the discussion is explicitly about “in the event of Trump winning re-election” how is that not about American domestic politics? As a partner to a treaty with the US, particular one that would obligate Australia to get involved in wars started by the US, US domestic politics are very much relevant as those are going to be a strong driver for the kinds of conflicts Australia is liable to be dragged into.
Wanting to ditch the treaty just because Trump won might be an overreaction, but it also might not. Any other president in US history it almost assuredly would be. Prior to Jan. 6th even, it would be. But Trump has not only said on multiple occasions that he wants to be president for life, not only repeatedly admitted admiration for Kim Jong Un, Vladmir Putin, and other dictators, but then attempted his own coup however badly organized and executed it was. ALL countries with military alliances with the US are going to want to take a real hard look at if the benefits out weigh the risks of continuing that relationship if Trump is re-elected. For many that calculus might not change immediately, but you can bet they’re going to be watching 2028 like a fucking hawk assuming he wins in 2024, and if he does pull off the coup this time that’s going to be a real bad time for basically everybody, because the US becoming a dictatorship is a deeply deeply scary proposition.
I don’t think fearcasting into a land of dozens, or hundreds, of interdependent worst case hypotheticals is relevant to a discussion of whether immediately upon Trump’s potential reelection, Australia will end its military alliance with America.
It’s much more of a creative writing exercise, so why stop there?
In my version, China has expanded it A2/AD strategy to include Australian waters. In fact, they’ve forward deployed 2 carrier battle groups 50 nautical miles from Australia’s northern coast.
And I could write pages more, worst case hypotheticals, to explain why in that world everything you’re saying is irrelevant to the American Australian alliance. But, again, it’s not relevant to the topic at hand,: it’s creative writing, not foreign policy.
FYI anyone who has a just below surface level understanding of China’s Three Island Chain Policy, A2/AD, and Wolf Warrior diplomacy, knows that my hypothetical is even slightly more likely then yours. NOT probable, but certainly plausible and requires a lot less to go wrong then your rise of the MAGA-Reich.
So how long will people continue to think like that and by result let everything fall apart?
Without morality, life is meaningless.
I’m not saying that is how things should be, I’m talking about how they actually are.
That doesn’t mean I endorse, or support, the status quo. Just that I recognize what it is, and the implications that has on international relations.
I am aware. I mean to say that we need to stop just accepting things as they are and start changing them.