As an American, I’d like to dump America if Trump becomes president again.
We don’t even need to do anything, he’ll do all the work for us when he gets reelected…
Well based on their comment of as an American, they’ll have to have dark skin or something and then Trump’s “great america” will take it’s toll
Eventually. Their current boogyman is trans people followed by LGBTQ+ in general. They’ll get around to non-white and non-christian people eventually though.
Loyal and racially pure Germans burned and died just as well as the dissidents.
40% of Australia has their head on.
While I agree, this survey is based on less than 1% of the population. The article does not clearly cite its sources. ‘Based on 1019 responses’ from who? Sydneysiders? People from the NT?
This uncited survey from a for profit company, with major shareholders being venture capitalists, asset managers, shitbags, etc. with a history of possible poll manipulation means nothing.
I expect better from the Guardian
While I agree, this survey is based on less than 1% of the population.
The fact that the survey is uncited is a problem, but polling is a science, and you only need a relatively small amount, with proper weighting, to get reliable results.
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Meant to edit, accidentally deleted.
Is it weighted? How? Who was polled? All Melburnians or people whose favorite joke is ‘Show us your map of Tazzie’? With no sources or methodology it means nothing. The moon is made of cheese.
I agree with what you’re saying for the most part, but for a population the size of Australia with 1000 respondents, a 99% confidence level has a margin of error of 4% which is perfectly acceptable. Unless the survey targeted very specific demographics versus a random sample, it should be very accurate.
That was my point though, we have no idea who was surveyed.
Agreed. YouGov is garbage. They are owned by christian nationalists of the Tory variety. There is nothing governmental about them, and they meddle in public opinion of foreign countries. Their polls rarely show the source information. I’ve seen them post absurd things, like quietly polling a catholic church and being like, “98% of Americans oppose abortion”. I don’t know who exactly they polled, cause they won’t tell us most of the time.
How high are you right meow?
No they don’t, they’re idiots. Severing a valuable longstanding alliance because you don’t like their current leader, who will be in power for at most, another 4 years is an incredibly short-sighted decision.
Cut off the nose to spite the face energy.
But, they can start supporting again after 4 years. Seems pretty short sighted to not think about 5 years +.
I mean, what would “dumping our alliance” even look like? Cut off trade? Deny travel? I get the sentiment but this is just stupid, not to mention Australia’s own right wing woes.
Remove as a friend on faceboot
They could stop military cooperation, they could severely limit trade, they could begin to require Americans to have visas for entry.
Don’t forget this is a poll not a diplomatic statement from the Aussie gov. If it was they would have outlined what would be expected.
Though one would expect Australia to be a little more tactful when it come to foreign policy announcements or opinions on an ally’s head of state or elections for the position.
You all need to remove your sense of morality from foreign policy calculations made by any government. It’s about power, always about power. You may personally view one nation’s values as better and therefore their ideas of power more moral, but still, it’s about power.
For Australia specifically, they are reliant on the US Naval power projection for their conception of Australian national security, which is why even their new Labor government is still moving ahead with AUKUS. It why Australia has always sent their troops to fight in America’s wars (post-WW2), rightly or wrongly.
Even after Vietnam was so bad for Australia that they revamped their entire military to become a “defensive” force and not an explicitly expeditionary one, they still fought in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Those were all chips put into the American security pot, that they’re hoping to be able to call in when they need it.
Those reasons, and more, are why I’m confident that even with Trump, it would take something so drastic and catastrophic to change their calculations, that I don’t want to even try and imagine what that would be. Even if I’m sure Trump could manage to cause whatever catalyst that would be necessary. Still, it wouldn’t just be his reelection. It would be something so much worse.
While you’re correct in a geopolitical sense right now, there’s a strong reason to believe things could get a LOT worse. Trump is worrying close to going full fascist, and the parallels to the rise of Hitler are incredibly worrying. It could absolutely just be overreacting, and maybe it will all blow over, but re-election of Trump would show a very worrying pro-dictatorship pro-white christian nationalist bent in the US. It wouldn’t take much in such a situation to see the MAGA party execute a coup of the US government and head down the same path we’ve seen in the past. They’ve already tried it once after all (or twice if you count the storming the the capital and the attempt to certify fake electors as two separate occurrences), and only failed by the thinnest of margins.
In such a situation it’s easy to see a hypothetical militaristic MAGA party starting a war with China, or possibly even more worryingly with someone in Europe and Australia not wanting to get pulled into the mess that would start. It could very well be the start of WW3 and nobody sane wants to see that.
The alien discard begins lol, we’ve become too annoying and they’ve decided to infect the people’s brains with war
Jk
When I say Trump is a unique threat, I’m speaking in terms of foreign policy and alliances.
I haven’t talked about, nor do I want to talk about, American domestic politics in this thread.
That said, what about my view of Trump as a unique threat in that context, gives you the impression that I don’t think he poses unique threats domestically?
Also, your points about the rise of a MAGA-Reich are pretty far outside the bounds of anything relating to the issue at hand: practical issues relating to Australia’s military alliance and a Trump reelection.
So…not really sure what your point is, at least not in relation to my comment.
You don’t think being in a military alliance with the US, that a fascist coup of the US would have bearing on whether Australia would want to remain in said alliance?
As for American domestic politics, when the discussion is explicitly about “in the event of Trump winning re-election” how is that not about American domestic politics? As a partner to a treaty with the US, particular one that would obligate Australia to get involved in wars started by the US, US domestic politics are very much relevant as those are going to be a strong driver for the kinds of conflicts Australia is liable to be dragged into.
Wanting to ditch the treaty just because Trump won might be an overreaction, but it also might not. Any other president in US history it almost assuredly would be. Prior to Jan. 6th even, it would be. But Trump has not only said on multiple occasions that he wants to be president for life, not only repeatedly admitted admiration for Kim Jong Un, Vladmir Putin, and other dictators, but then attempted his own coup however badly organized and executed it was. ALL countries with military alliances with the US are going to want to take a real hard look at if the benefits out weigh the risks of continuing that relationship if Trump is re-elected. For many that calculus might not change immediately, but you can bet they’re going to be watching 2028 like a fucking hawk assuming he wins in 2024, and if he does pull off the coup this time that’s going to be a real bad time for basically everybody, because the US becoming a dictatorship is a deeply deeply scary proposition.
I don’t think fearcasting into a land of dozens, or hundreds, of interdependent worst case hypotheticals is relevant to a discussion of whether immediately upon Trump’s potential reelection, Australia will end its military alliance with America.
It’s much more of a creative writing exercise, so why stop there?
In my version, China has expanded it A2/AD strategy to include Australian waters. In fact, they’ve forward deployed 2 carrier battle groups 50 nautical miles from Australia’s northern coast.
And I could write pages more, worst case hypotheticals, to explain why in that world everything you’re saying is irrelevant to the American Australian alliance. But, again, it’s not relevant to the topic at hand,: it’s creative writing, not foreign policy.
FYI anyone who has a just below surface level understanding of China’s Three Island Chain Policy, A2/AD, and Wolf Warrior diplomacy, knows that my hypothetical is even slightly more likely then yours. NOT probable, but certainly plausible and requires a lot less to go wrong then your rise of the MAGA-Reich.
So how long will people continue to think like that and by result let everything fall apart?
Without morality, life is meaningless.
I’m not saying that is how things should be, I’m talking about how they actually are.
That doesn’t mean I endorse, or support, the status quo. Just that I recognize what it is, and the implications that has on international relations.
I am aware. I mean to say that we need to stop just accepting things as they are and start changing them.
Can’t blame them. God forbid it happens.
The USA get one “we did something unthinkably stupid” free pass.
No way would they ever reelect that literal fascist after he all but tried to dismantle their institutions and install himself as a democratic dictator.
They’re not that stupid, and if they are? We should all cut ties, don’t want to be dragged down with the ship. But it won’t come to that.
I know at least one person who, after saying they don’t like Trump and agree that he has done several illegal things, said that they would rather have Trump as president than Biden again.
It’s certainly not impossible that he gets elected again.
We are that stupid.
We really are. It’s still bad here
The USA get one “we did something unthinkably stupid” free pass.
They used up all those passes during the Bush administration.
Remember when we thought Bush was the low point in American history, and it couldn’t get more absurd than “Freedom Fries”? Good times.
Don’t diminish what a shit bag Bush was.
At least Trump didn’t invade a country and kill tens of thousands of people under false pretenses.
yet.
Believe it or not…and what you and others can’t appear to accept… That orange man is in the past.
“Trump can’t possibly get elected”
I think I’ve heard this one before…
they used up all those passes when they had to go to war over whether slavery is bad and should be banned
Wait until you hear what country started slavery in America.
…
Well, it’s technically Spain, but you know.
No way would they ever reelect
They’re not that stupid
I’m getting these vibes from this comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Oczyk6nCw
Which terrifies me.
We should all cut ties, don’t want to be dragged down with the ship
Cutting ties with the most powerful country in the world? Not going to happen.
Honestly, how can anyone say he won’t be elected again? Have we learned nothing?
Well for one thing he’s not running against Hillary Clinton this time.
A good point but I still won’t rule out anything
Yeah, don’t get complacent, but don’t listen to the sky-is-falling doomsayers that spam every political thread either. The Republicans have been doing poorly in every election since 2018, and between the chaos in the House and the law finally catching up with Trump things aren’t looking good for them in 2024.
Almost 40% of most democratic country’s populations would probably agree with most dumb and provocative ideas presented in a poll… especially now days with how partisan everything has become.
That said the Australia/ USA alliance is more important than any particular administration or head of government either our Australian government or the US government.
It’s an alliance of enormous mutual benefit that frankly is not going anywhere.
Australia is an enormous unsinkable aircraft carrier rich in resources, far enough from potential adversaries in the region to provide extremely strong defence in depth in the region. We use common platforms and tactics in battle, and have extensive integrated combat experience.
Perhaps even more important than any of that, it would be politically unacceptable I believe to our populations to turn our back on each other at this point, so many of us have personal friends and family in each other’s country.
We might occasionally have disagreements like any family does, and we might not like everything about each other but that’s how it goes with family. Any other country trying some shit I feel will find out fast that our alliance is stronger than it has ever been.
The US, UK and Australia have a bond forged in the fire of conflict and quenched in blood, anyone who wants to try and fuck with one should probably be ready for a fight with all… not to be overly dramatic.
I appreciate this dude’s pride
only 40% seems disturbingly low.
In other news only 40.01% of Australians care about US politics.
lolz
40% of Australia? I wasnt asked? (But I agree)
I mean, understandable but still a terrible idea. More than ever Australia, Europe, the US need each other.
For what?
I mean we can just hand over the keys to the BRICS, maybe they’ll do a better job than we did.
BRIC(S) is a Goldman-Sachs white paper, turned PR initiative.
It’s not common market, much less anything resembling a security architecture.
Don’t get me wrong, I think a Global South alliance or economic union/federation would be an amazing advancement for EVERY worker in the world, not just those outside the first world.
Unfortunately, BRICS isn’t that, and can never be that. But maybe, if we’re lucky, it can be the League of Nations style doomed prototype for a more successful and effective organization to be born out of its ashes. Though, ideally without requiring another world war.
BRICS is Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Of those, only Brazil and South Africa are not currently engaged in ethnic cleansing.
Is that really what we want to gamble on?
No that was kind of my point :)
Oh, sorry, lol.
China, or rather, the Pacific.
I bet some large amounts of money against his win the last time he was on, because I thought that if he gets a second term, everything gonna be completely fucked anyway so it won’t matter if I lose a few monies. That worked out fine.
I’m scared to do it the same way this time for some reason.
Surprised it’s not 60% honestly.
you have my permission to get together with the Japs and ze Germans and invade… if the Brits can get their shit together, they’re welcome to join in…
Nothing would solidify a sitting president’s hold on power more than an invasion. Do you want a third term of Trump? Because that’s the only way that could happen
This is the best summary I could come up with:
A significant minority of Australians think the country should withdraw from the overall Anzus security alliance with the US if Donald Trump returns to the White House, while just under half of the respondents in a new poll believe the Aukus pact locks Australia in to supporting the US in any armed conflict.
But after the steady thaw in diplomatic relations between Canberra and Beijing over the past 12 months, and the release of Australia’s defence strategic review in April, 49% say that now.
A majority of Australian respondents (63%) believe China will become the most economically and militarily influential country in Asia over the coming couple of decades (32% say the US will be the pre-eminent power).
The new poll findings follow Anthony Albanese’s return from an official visit to Washington and ahead of the prime minister’s trip to Shanghai and Beijing at the end of this week.
Seven months after Albanese joined Biden and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, in San Diego to announce the Aukus plans, there remains uncertainty over congressional approvals needed for them to succeed.
Asked on Tuesday whether or not he was walking a diplomatic tightrope between the strategic competitors – Washington and Beijing – the prime minister said Australians wanted him “to be direct about our interests”.
The original article contains 792 words, the summary contains 215 words. Saved 73%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
This is probably as good a place and time as any to reflect on how everything went as terribly wrong as it had to get in order for clowns like Trump to not be laughed out of politics.
Politics had to fall very far, very hard, to get to the point where enough people felt like voting at all was a waste of time- and probably the biggest single factor I can point out is when the Neoliberals took over the Democrats, American Labor lost its only champion, Antitrust law lost its only advocate, and both major parties in the USA essentially became handmaidens to corporate power. While this was happening, the GOP, long since a dark-money puppet organization, abandoned any pretense of doing anything in the public interest and became a full-throated howl of corruption and voter suppression and gerrymandering.
When both major parties in a duopoly system take turns tag-teaming the working class for their donors’ profit margins, you can expect that working class to radicalize, leftwards and rightwards, it’s what happens every time when a working class realizes it’s being objectively fucked. There was a reason Weimar Germany was so full of left-socialists and right-fascists, the middle had thoroughly failed and it turns out that when given the choice, status-quo-liberals will always choose fascism over socialism.
why? hasnt it been proven that the Aus govt doesnt care about what the population wants? besides 40% being 11% short of a majority?
