I think the quote about the “white liberal” more interested in the negative peace of order is incredibly salient. I’ve been thinking very very deeply about this quote over the last several months.

add to that the fact that the democratic party is successfully using abortion to get votes and rfk jr is a much bigger threat to trump than biden; it’s pretty clear that biden will win not matter what.

I appreciate your optimism but I think this is less certain than you make it out to be. I think you need to take these assumptions to the electoral college map and actually game it out. Specifically, without pivoting on Gaza, I argue that Biden has lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. They demonstrated their willingness to step back from Biden, and Biden has only gotten worse since then. He held onto those states by a shoestring in 2020.

Thats 35 electoral votes. So where does Biden make those up on abortion rights? What states does Biden flip into his favor. Florida? (yea fucking right) Texas? (blue as my balls waiting for this state to turn purple).

Like show me on a map where these electoral college votes that Biden has gained are coming from and we can have that conversation. Otherwise, you don’t actually have an argument because the popular vote is irrelevant, and whining about winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college isn’t an argument either.

My read of the electoral college map is that we’re basically locked into the state it was in for 2016 and 2020. I don’t see anything fundamentally different going into 2024. So the question becomes, what states flip from 2020?

@eldavi

i’m going to copy/paste this to the only 2 comments this thread is getting

I don’t get why you don’t just post it once and then @ everyone you’re talking to.