The Polish Border Guard stated that a few days ago shots were fired for the first time from the territory of Belarus; a service car was damaged, and it is not known for certain which weapon was used.
The Polish Border Guard stated that a few days ago shots were fired for the first time from the territory of Belarus; a service car was damaged, and it is not known for certain which weapon was used.
This is article 5 reason!
Nah, decent chance that the shooter was a civilian. Short of undeniable proof that the (Byelo)russian army fired these shots there’s basically no chance of Article 5 being invoked, and even then I personally don’t think it’ll be triggered by anything less than a proper invasion of a NATO member.
Nah, the political body in NATO would determine whether the Article 5 invocation is valid or not. Article 5 over civilian throwing rock at the border guard? Unlikely. Poland would likely drag the diplomat from Belarus into the room and demand bringing those offenders before the International Court of law like ICJ, ICC, ECHR, or just a tribunal.
If Belarus doesn’t comply, then it can face severe sanctions, diplomacy pressure, increased border guard presence at the border, and so forth.
The rule of thumb when reasoning about which options might be used in such situation, the most boring one is probably the one. War is basically the absolute last resort of just about any circumstances.