sounds like battle royale from hell
rn = 2.5 years ago.
It’s become even worse.
“3 trans?”
I wanted to look up the statistics for myself and see what the numbers are, given a room size scaled around 1 person dying from firearm related injury. I chose people dying from firearm injuries because I had a hard time finding a statistic for all people who were shot. If you are aware of better sources for my numbers (or a math error on my part), please let me know. I primarily used sources from the US government, but I recognize that those sources might not be completely transparent right now. Also, I don’t mean for this to undermine the intention of the author here. Every issue mentioned is absolutely a problem in america, regardless of arbitrary comparisons. Also also, transgender people are valid and deserve rights regardless of how many people are shot per year.
Say you’re in a room with 2,584,401 people. 206,752 don’t have insurance. 273,947 live in poverty. 542,724 are illiterate. 596,996 suffer from mental illness. And every day at least 1 person dies from firearm related injury. But 21,192 are trans so you decided ruining their lives is a priority.
The population of the US was 341,140,964 on 12/31/24.
92% had health insurance in 2024.
10.6% lived in poverty in 2024.
79% were literate in 2013. (Hopefully there is a more recent source for this somewhere)
I appreciate the effort to improve the methodology. But the numbers feel too big to be grasped easily, compared to the original.
Maybe the time frame can be changed? If we bump it to “1 person will be shot to death this year” it would make it a room full of 7080 people and 58 are trans
Edit: full data set rescaled
7080 - total
566 - no insurance
750 - poverty
1487 - illiterate
1635 - mentally ill
1 - gun death per year
58 - trans
Gotta measure stuff in hamburgers and school buses - 1972 model
I agree, that is absolutely a better representation of the data
Should be “206,752 with no insurance” in your original comment btw. Looks like you did 92% instead of 8%
Thanks! I fixed it
Thanks, I was stuck 330M americans… so almost a million get shot ever day (per the original)… that can’t be right
Fine but nobody would care. Alt right enjoyers are way too deeo into “religious” amok to even get touch with reality again, not to mention trying to talk to them with statistics. they just don’t care.
I appreciate you providing sources, genuinely, though I will point out the way the US officially measures poverty is laughable bullshit.
Yep, thats right, you live alone, and make or otherwise recieve more than $15.6k a year?
Not in poverty.
Also, the average paid rent in the US is ~1350 a month.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state
So… 1350 x 12 = 16,200, meaning a person below that is probably just literally homeless or nearly totally reliant on family or friends or the state for housing and food, as they have literally less than 0 money for food, on average, without some kind of assistance.
I would argue the actual US poverty line needs to be drawn at between where 200% and 300% of the current poverty line is.
That’s not how averages work. The average “poor” person is not paying anywhere near the average rent.
Oh, if you have more accurate and precise data, please do provide it.
How do you meassure untreated mental illness? Otherwise i like this reframimg a lot.
Huh. So 45,625 killed by guns each year, about 1/10th of 1% but since people live longer than a year, I wonder what the lifetime risk is? Surely nowhere near risk of being killed by a car but probably much higher than the 1/10th of 1%.
The probability to NOT be killed by a gun is 0.999^x, where x is the number of years.
At 50 years that would be ~95%, i.e. 5% chance to be killed by a gun before turning 50
At 80 its ~8%
At 100 its ~10%
Shouldn’t we factor in things like skin colour? I feel like that might have an impact on the likelihood.
The room has a >91.25% annual shooting rate?
I don’t want to brag, but I’ve been living in the United States for 25 years and I haven’t been shot once. If the room resets annually, my odds to this point were 3.55x10^-27. Am I the last American?
“And the pedantic mathmeticians shall inherit the earth.”
😁
For every dead person a new one is born
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48 in poverty seems low
85 being illiterate seems high
I have some really bad news for you about the literacy rate in the U.S.
21% is pretty fuckin high
Unfortunately this is accurate. Half of adults in the US are unable to read past a sixth grade level. 20% are functionally illiterate.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/us-literacy-rates-by-state
How is that possible? People use the internet every day where you need to read constantly. Do those people live without any internet?
TikTok I fear
If you look at the data, it tells you about 1/3 of those who are illiterate comes from foreigners so that is not surprising. But the largest demographic of illiterates in the US is white people lol
Also they are functionally illiterate. It’s a wide encompassing term that ranges from people who can’t read English because they just moved here to people who can only read basic words like stop and go or words they encounter often in life but not much more than that.
I would imagine many people who are functionally illiterate just go to work, watch tv, and sleep.
It’s unsurprising if you understand how horrible & scientifically uninformed popular reading pedagogy was until a few years ago. It probably explains the overreliance of meetings at work where written communication should suffice.
It sadly isn’t.
Literacy is pretty strict, for a good reason. You can still be able to read street signs and “See Spot Run” and be considered illiterate.
Only one getting shot per day? Fuckin’ rookie numbers!
E: extra word
That seems high even by US standards. After a year, basically everyone would be dead.
Apparently the rate is 125 killed by a gun and 200 shot and wounded per day. I don’t know how that would extrapolate from the total population down to 400 people but you are correct that it is, in fact, much less than one.
https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-in-america/
325 out of 340 million is less than 1 in a million (per day). So in our 400 person room, (assuming I’m doing the math right) about 30-40 grams of human matter would get shot per day. Which is like, four (or more) eyeballs of weight.
I’d be extremely concerned if every single day, a random body part of someone in the room was destroyed.
Alternately, if you do it by time instead of size, one person gets shot about every seven years.
Of those 125 “killed by a gun”, 91 of the “victims” pulled the trigger themselves. There’s about 34 gun murders per day in the US.
If you’re looking for a population where one person is murdered daily, you need to start with about 10,440,000 people.
The problem isn’t that people are killing themselves. The problem is desperation. For far too many in our dystopian society, death is the brightest hope that some will ever see. The solution to gun suicide is unfucking this massive shitstained clusterfuck, not depriving the desperate of their 9mm retirement plans.
Why per day? It being trans counted per day?
That number seems quite realistic when considering it as over the course of a life time, i.e. over the course of your life time you have a 1 in 400 chance of being shot.
And everyday, at least 1 person is shot.
It literally says it in the post?
Ok, fine, I overread that, but it still doesn’t make sense to compare that on such vastly different time scales.
Take it up with @gayblackvet?
One in 400 people is shot every day? Yeah I’m gonna call BS on this one.
Maybe it’s just one guy getting shot so often it’s not even newsworthy anymore.
Gunshot Gary keeps shooting himself in the leg to build up an immunity.
Brett from Archer?
The room is located in a school
If I did the math right, for one person to be shot per day, we’re starting with a population of 10,440,000, not 400.
I worked the math out to be one person out of 400 shot to death either by murder or suicide every 17.12 years. Definitely not every 21 days, but it is still actually crazy when you think about just how few 400 people is.
That sounds about right. About 1 in 87 will die from suicide in general. 1 in 57 will OD. 1 in 6 from heart disease; 1 in 7 from cancer.
1 in 156 will kill themselves with a gun. 1 in 238 will be killed with a gun. (This includes FAFO deaths that could be prevented if people understood that a lethal threat justifies a lethal response.)
I don’t think it was trying to be factual, but more trying to make a point.
It’s not 3 times lower than that. It’s about 1 in a million, not 1 in 400. That’s 3 orders of magnitude less than the post claims. This is so hilariously wrong it undermines the credibility of the post.
Which is sad because all these points are really important things to draw attention to.
Over what time frame? Did you include gun facilitated suicides? And in general getting shot, doesn’t mean getting killed.
Yes, I included suicides and non-fatal injuries, and I used the same “daily” timeframe as the original post.
You’re focusing on the wrong part of the post. The point of the post is that despite all of these horrible (and for a lack of a better word, fixable) things going on in the world right now, people are wrongly focusing on trans people as a problem.
Also, there is such a thing as hyperbole, and it doesn’t mean that the point is invalid; instead it’s used to emphasize the point.
If someone can’t make an argument factually, they should not present it as if it’s actual science. This is not hyperbole, it’s lying.
Posts like this damage the message because it gives the right ammunition to say that we are liars.
Much better to be scientifically rigorous.
Not everything needs to meet scientific rigor. If that were the case, you would’ve provided me with at least three scientific studies demonstrating your side of the argument. But you didn’t, because it’s wholly unnecessary for a normal conversation.
“Being blatantly wrong is fine, as long as you have good intentions.”
The average person in the USA only makes $140 per year. Well, it’s not really that bad, but it draws attention to wage inequity in the USA.
No, not everything needs scientific rigor, but it’s a false equivalence to suggest we should tolerate blatant misinformation.
If that’s the hill you want to die on, that’s your prerogative, and I won’t fault you for it. I do disagree with you, but I also appreciate your time discussing this with me and challenging my assertions.
Unfortunately since it’s relying on numbers to make it’s point it would hit a lot harder if it was factual…
The point being that math is hard, and doesn’t care about feelings?
In a population of 400 people, 1 person is shot every day? So, by the end of one year, the population is down to 35 people?
If we extrapolate to the US population, we end up with 900,000 people murdered per day, or about 330 million people per year. That doesn’t seem quite right.
One person is shot, not one person is killed via shooting.
Fair enough. So, at the end of the first year, there are at least 365 bullet wounds among 400 people? Every year, 330 million Americans are treated for bullet holes?
The math suggests I should be surviving a gunshot wound every 16 months or so. That doesn’t seem to match my life experience.
Some people get shot more often than others, mainly those living in poverty because they are forced to live in bad places, also most of them are black and shot by the police frequently
I’m more concerned about the lack of basic arithmetic literacy at this point. There would probably be a fair bit less poverty with a broader understanding of numbers.
Maybe, I’m not sure what would happen if literacy and math skills rose globally.
After thinking about it for 30s (so my point is not very thought out), I think it would impact poverty, but not for the reason you think, I expect people would vote differently, and that would have an impact on poverty. I don’t think it would reduce poverty because people would spend more wisely, poverty imo is not a lack of management, it is a vicious circle you can’t easily escape.
I think it would impact poverty, but not for the reason you think, I expect people would vote differently, and that would have an impact on poverty.
That’s actually exactly what I think. A much greater focus on facts and figures. A whole lot less emphasis on feels.
What is the rate of a black person being shot by police vs a black person being shot by other black people?
Maybe it’s always the same three hundred million.
I looked up an actual statistic and it was way fewer than 1/400, so yeah. Though I do think the point about not everyone having the same experience bears thinking on, regardless of the screenshot’s accuracy.
Way fewer is a bit of an understatement. They are off by 5 orders of magnitude.
It’s roughly 1 in 10,440,000.
The number I got was >200 daily gunshot wounds out of a population of 340 000 000 in the US.
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The actual statistic is more like one person out of the 400 getting shot every seven years.
Which is still pretty sobering.
The math is not the point here…
Are you sure? Based on their argument, I’d say “Mathematical Literacy” is the only priority we should have right now.
I’d say this shows exactly what’s wrong. People discussing the details (although important details), but the real issues are ignored, almost like the mistakes are made on purpose to sow discord
Just because the inaccuracy is being pointed out doesn’t mean the real issue is being ignored.
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when one party makes fighting disinformation a priority instead of spreading it they shouldn’t be suprised when it spends time arguing against blainant disinformation.
It kind of is. The point of the analogy is to make the big numbers easier to grasp. If it’s just wrong, then are the other numbers even close?
That bit is a baldfaced lie. We OK with that?
The math is a pretty big point, seeing how the post focuses on how few trans people there are compared to the other mentioned groups (the figure for “people shot” is only 1 - but the post claims it happens every day)
Don’t worry, the fascists will be going after those with mental health issues next.
It’s already starting.
It’s called scapgoating.
tbf, trans people are gross. Round them up and shoot them all for daring to live their life how they see fit, without harming anyone else. How dare they??
source: I’m a trans person.
meanwhile, dumpy mcshitpants is harming millions, even perhaps billions, on his micropenis hard on for fascism.
In other news, the Kirk Memorial was basically a Nuremberg rally.
Wheee yaah… this is not looking good.
EDIT:
I would describe this youtuber as an actual, genuine centrist, not a crypto nazi, got a lot of sensible ideas and some ignorant ones… I use him as a barometer for basically non brain poisoned normies who have a college degree and a functioning brain, but also come from a blue collar area and are … more culturally traditional.
Basically, a guy who is kinda problematic if you do a deep dive, but you could probably have a beer with and be reasonably good to ok friends with.
And he is in horror, reviewing Miller’s speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSYjqB_Q-8
The… original intent of his channel was a travel channel, showing people how US life compares to working and living overseas.
EDIT 2:
Large Man here missed this, but I will point out that Miller saying ‘We are the storm’ is an obvious Q Anon reference.
Like I said, he’s not internet brain poisoned enough to know.
Err, that’s a nice little quip but that bit about shooting isn’t even remotely close to reality.
Example: There’s about 80,000 - 100,000 gun related injuries in the USA per year. That’s about 250 people getting shot each day. However, we are working against a population of ~330,000,000 in the USA. If you take the 100,000 / 333,000,000 = 0.0003. That’s 0.0003 per year per person. So the chance of a person getting shot in a year in the USA is about 1 in 3,330.
To look at this in another way, the fellow said there’s a group of 400 people and 1 is shot each day. That means in 1 year, nearly everyone in the room would have been shot, and in 2 years some people would be shot twice.
Look, the USA is pretty disgusting with some issues, but if you want to throw numbers around, at least make them accurate, otherwise it undermines the whole argument.
Ackshully
You don’t think it’s important to know the ACTUAL numbers when discussing issues?
If I said 50 million people were eaten by sharks each year and tried to convince my local town to ban swimming, don’t you think it’s important I get the number right?
The numbers presented in the original quote were basically off by 1000x. We’re not talking nit-picking here. It’s off by orders of magnitude.
it’s not really about trans being bad moreso that they feel tremendous shame for being the largest consumers of trans porn. A lot of the men on the right are closeted as hell.
Not diagnosed, diagnosed, or self reported as mentally ill? Seems low.
Yeah, these numbers are all kinds of fucky
